Retired four-star Army Gen. Jack Keane offered a sobering assessment Tuesday, predicting that President Donald Trump may ultimately have little choice but to resume combat operations against Iran, even as officials insist a ceasefire remains in place.
Appearing on Fox News with anchor Martha MacCallum, Keane was asked to weigh in on reports from military leaders that the ceasefire continues to hold, despite ongoing tensions. MacCallum pointed to a series of incidents, including multiple attacks against U.S. forces and the seizure of two ships, questioning why those actions had not crossed the threshold for ending the ceasefire.
Keane argued that some level of confrontation was expected, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, where U.S. forces are engaged in what he described as defensive operations. Still, he identified what he sees as clear violations that could change the equation.
First, Keane pointed to attacks on U.S. allies in the region, specifically referencing strikes against the United Arab Emirates. He said such actions go beyond the scope of encounters in the Strait and should be considered a breach of the ceasefire. Second, he emphasized that any direct attack on a U.S. warship would be a major turning point.
“If you attack a U.S. warship, nothing is going to be the same after that,” Keane said, arguing that such a move would trigger a far more forceful response. He added that the United States would not wait for casualties before acting, suggesting a preemptive posture designed to deter further escalation.
The discussion then turned to the status of diplomatic efforts. While public statements have suggested talks may still be ongoing, Keane expressed skepticism about their effectiveness. He said it is likely that discussions between U.S. negotiators and Iranian representatives have continued behind the scenes, but he framed those talks as part of a broader strategy by Iran to prolong the ceasefire.
According to Keane, Iranian negotiators may offer the prospect of concessions in order to delay more decisive action, a tactic he suggested has been used in past negotiations. He argued that such delays can create the impression of progress, even if no meaningful agreement is ultimately reached.
Keane said U.S. officials may hear these signals and interpret them as signs that a deal is possible, but he cautioned that expectations should be tempered. In his view, the leadership structure in Iran is focused less on compromise and more on survival, shaping how negotiations unfold.
He identified Ahmed Vahidi as a key figure, describing him as working closely with the country’s top religious leadership. According to Keane, the overriding objective of those in power is to endure the current pressure, even if it means absorbing economic hardship caused by U.S. actions such as the blockade.
That blockade, Keane noted, is already having a significant impact by restricting Iran’s exports, while U.S. efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz aim to restore global shipping routes. He credited those moves as strategic decisions, but suggested they may not be enough to change the trajectory of the conflict.
Ultimately, Keane warned that the situation appears to be moving toward renewed escalation. As Iran continues what he described as increasingly aggressive actions, he said the likelihood of expanded U.S. military involvement grows.
Even as officials highlight the ceasefire and ongoing talks, Keane’s assessment points to a different reality—one where diplomacy struggles to keep pace with events on the ground, and where the prospect of deeper conflict remains close at hand.
[READ MORE: Trump Strikes Back Against Republicans Who Refused To Gerrymander]
