A new set of polling data is now reportedly offering Republicans a potential path forward heading into the midterm elections, even as broader approval numbers for Donald Trump show signs of weakness.
During a Thursday segment on CNN, chief data analyst Harry Enten pointed to a dynamic that could ultimately work in the GOP’s favor. Appearing alongside anchor John Berman, Enten addressed a recent Quinnipiac University survey that placed Trump’s overall approval rating at 38%, a figure that reflects declining support, particularly among independent voters.
Berman highlighted that erosion, noting Trump has been “hemorrhaging support among independents,” a group often seen as critical in determining election outcomes. But Enten pushed back on the idea that the numbers tell the full story, arguing that a deeper look reveals a more nuanced—and potentially more favorable—picture for Republicans.
According to Enten, Trump continues to maintain relatively stable support among voters aged 65 and older, a demographic widely considered one of the most dependable in American elections. Unlike younger voters, who tend to participate less consistently, senior citizens reliably turn out at the ballot box, giving their preferences outsized influence.
“President Trump is more than holding his own amongst a very large portion of the electorate, a very reliable voting bloc, and that is senior citizens,” Enten explained.
Drawing on polling data from CBS, CNN, and Fox News, Enten noted that Trump’s approval rating among seniors has only dipped slightly—from 46% in March 2025 to 44% more recently. In a political environment where volatility has become the norm, that level of stability stands out.
Enten suggested that Republicans may view this consistency as a reason for cautious optimism. While much attention is often given to younger voters and shifting cultural trends, the reality of electoral politics still hinges heavily on turnout—and older voters continue to dominate in that regard.
He also pointed out that Trump’s standing among senior citizens compares favorably to past presidents. At similar points, Barack Obama held a 39% approval rating with seniors, while George W. Bush stood at 34%. By that measure, Trump’s current numbers suggest a stronger connection with this key demographic than some of his predecessors.
Still, the overall landscape is far from one-sided. Enten acknowledged that Democrats maintain a narrow advantage in aggregate polling, leading Republicans by roughly three points nationally. However, he argued that such a margin may not be sufficient to deliver sweeping victories across both chambers of Congress.
“This could cost Republicans the House,” Enten said, “but a number like this suggests to me that Republicans very, very well are likely to hold the Senate.”
In other words, while the broader political climate may appear challenging for Republicans at first glance, the underlying data tells a more complicated story. With their support holding steady among the most reliable voters, Republicans may not be in as precarious a position as some headlines suggest.
At the same time, the numbers underscore a familiar reality in American politics: even amid shifting alliances and national debates, turnout—and who shows up—can matter just as much as changing opinions.
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