President Donald Trump avoided outright denying the possibility of a recession in 2025, instead describing the U.S. economy as undergoing a “period of transition” as his administration’s policies take effect. In an interview on Fox Business, Trump acknowledged economic uncertainty but stressed his focus on restoring wealth and stability.
When asked directly about the chances of a recession, Trump responded cautiously, saying, “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing… it takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”
His comments come amid growing concerns over the effects of tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, along with broader fears of an economic slowdown. The Atlanta Federal Reserve has projected a 2.8 percent contraction in the first quarter, while Goldman Sachs estimates a 20 percent chance of recession within the next year. JP Morgan is more cautious, putting the probability at 35 percent.
Despite these warnings, some officials remain confident in the economy’s resilience. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dismissed the idea of a downturn entirely during an appearance on Meet the Press, asserting, “There’s going to be no recession in America… no chance.”
Trump’s perspective suggests he views the current economic shifts as part of a necessary adjustment rather than an impending crisis. However, with financial analysts offering mixed predictions and trade tensions continuing, the future of the U.S. economy remains uncertain.
