Republicans face a steep climb to hold the House, according to the final Fox News Power Rankings of the 2026 cycle, released Tuesday just one week before Election Day.
The latest update shifted 19 House races toward Democrats, along with three Senate contests, painting a difficult picture for the GOP heading into the Nov. 3 midterms.
In the House, the forecast raises the floor for Democrats by four seats to 223, which would be enough to take the majority. Republicans now have 195 seats in their column, six short of the number analysts said would make life difficult for the next Democratic speaker, who would need to manage tensions between the party’s moderate and far-left wings.
On a strong night for Democrats, in which they capture most of the remaining toss-up races, the party could end up with as many as 240 seats.
Fox News analysts said the latest shifts were driven by the same factors identified in previous updates: national and district-level polling, strength at the top of the ticket, and the erosion of support among rural voters who have been a backbone of the Republican coalition.
The latest Fox News national poll shows Democrats with an 11-point lead on the generic congressional ballot.
The Senate picture is tighter. The rankings moved Ohio, South Carolina and Mississippi toward Democrats, with Ohio now rated Lean Democrat. In this forecast, Democrats are favored in 48 seats, leaving both parties three seats short of a majority.
Analysts noted that Democrats would have to win in states President Trump carried comfortably in 2024 to take control of the Senate, which makes the upper chamber a much harder lift than the House. Republicans remain competitive on friendly turf, and polls in states such as Ohio, Texas, Iowa and Kansas remain close.
The forecast also highlights the impact of the conflict with Iran on the race. Analysts said the war has given Democrats advantages on several of the top issues on voters’ minds, as higher energy prices have contributed to concerns about the cost of living.
The final rankings continue a trend that has built over the fall. Earlier this month, Fox News for the first time this cycle projected Democrats would win a House majority, forecasting 219 seats for the party.
Other forecasters have moved in the same direction. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted 19 races toward Democrats in its own update on Friday, with no seats moving toward Republicans.
Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House, with 218 seats to Democrats’ 214, meaning even a handful of pickups would flip control of the chamber.
GOP leaders, however, remain defiant. House Speaker Mike Johnson has argued that public polls are undercounting Republican voters and underestimating enthusiasm, pointing to large crowds at his campaign events across the country.
Midterm elections have historically been difficult for the party that holds the White House, and Republicans are hoping strong turnout and voter frustration with Democratic policies can help them beat the odds.
With seven days left, the question for many analysts is no longer just which party wins the House, but how large the eventual majority will be.
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