Former Representative Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat from Virginia’s 7th District who built her career on moderate appeals and heavy national party backing, reportedly currently holds a lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the race for governor, according to a new survey.
The poll, released Tuesday by Virginia Commonwealth University, found 49 percent of registered voters backing Ms. Spanberger, compared with 40 percent for Ms. Earle-Sears.
The nine-point margin underscores what Democrats have increasingly come to view as favorable terrain in Virginia, even as Republicans argue that the fundamentals of the race remain unsettled.
The findings are broadly consistent with other surveys in recent weeks. According to the Decision Desk HQ average, Ms. Spanberger leads Ms. Earle-Sears by 8.4 points.
Election forecasters have taken notice: the Cook Political Report continues to rate the contest as “lean Democratic,” while last week, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its outlook from “lean Democratic” to “likely Democratic.”
Still, Republicans point to evidence that voters remain far from locked into a Democratic wave. Down-ballot races — traditionally a better gauge of party strength than high-profile gubernatorial contests — are far closer, suggesting that Ms. Spanberger’s advantage may owe more to her national profile and heavy spending than to a groundswell of support for her party.
The VCU poll showed Democratic state senator Ghazala Hashmi leading Republican John Reid by just four points in the lieutenant governor’s race.
In the contest for attorney general, former delegate Jay Jones, a Democrat, leads incumbent Republican Jason Miyares by six points. With the survey’s margin of error at 4.1 percentage points, both of those races could be essentially tied.
For Republicans, that dynamic offers a path forward. Ms. Earle-Sears, who made history as Virginia’s first Black woman elected statewide and has positioned herself as a conservative who can appeal to suburban voters, continues to campaign heavily on themes of parental rights, crime, and the rising cost of living.
While Ms. Spanberger’s lead is evident, Republicans note that she has yet to be tested under the intense scrutiny of a statewide race.
The poll, conducted from Aug. 18 to 24 among 804 Virginia adults, arrives as both parties marshal resources ahead of November’s election.
Democrats have worked to consolidate their hold on Virginia after former President Biden carried the state comfortably in 2020. Republicans, meanwhile, argue that discontent with national Democratic leadership, combined with Ms. Earle-Sears’s historic candidacy and reputation as a fighter for working families, could narrow the gap as Election Day approaches.
For now, Ms. Spanberger enjoys the advantages of momentum and favorable press coverage.
But Republicans are quick to remind observers that Virginia politics have often defied expectations. With statewide contests for lieutenant governor and attorney general far tighter than the top of the ticket, the party sees a chance to close the gap in the weeks ahead.
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