Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu is sounding the alarm for his party in the Lone Star State. He predicted that Republican Ken Paxton will lose next week’s Texas Senate race to Democrat James Talarico.
“I think Texas is in trouble for Republicans,” Sununu said Thursday night on NewsNation’s “Cuomo.”
The prediction is striking for a state that has long been a Republican fortress. No Democrat has won a Senate race in Texas since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. No Democrat has won any statewide race there since 1994. Trump carried Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024.
Despite his warning about Texas, Sununu painted a much rosier picture of the Senate map as a whole than many in his party have. He predicted that the candidates he considers extremists will lose.
Democrats see an opening in Texas largely because of Paxton’s weaknesses as a candidate. The state attorney general has faced a string of controversies, including legal troubles and a messy divorce. He ousted longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a bruising primary runoff in May, after Trump endorsed Paxton at the eleventh hour.
That endorsement put the president at odds with Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Thune had backed Cornyn and warned that Republicans risk losing the seat with Paxton at the top of the ticket. Last year, an internal memo from the Senate GOP’s campaign arm warned that a Paxton nomination could force the party to divert hundreds of millions of dollars away from other battlegrounds.
Recent numbers have done little to calm Republican nerves. A CNN poll released Thursday showed Talarico, a state representative, leading Paxton 49% to 43%. Other recent surveys show a much closer race. A Fox News poll had the two candidates tied at 49% each.
Prediction markets are even more bullish on the Democrat. As of Friday, traders on Kalshi gave Talarico a 70% chance of winning, a record high for the race.
Republicans haven’t given up. Vice President JD Vance rallied with Paxton in Weatherford, near Dallas, this week. Vance told the crowd that Texas is one of the most important Senate races anywhere in the country.
The stakes are enormous. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and Democrats need to flip four seats to take control. A loss in Texas would hand Democrats a seat that Republicans have long counted as safe. That would force the GOP to make up ground elsewhere.
Overall, Decision Desk HQ’s forecast gives Democrats a 60% chance of retaking the Senate.
Sununu is no stranger to the national spotlight. He weighed a Senate run of his own in New Hampshire this cycle before announcing he would not run, a decision Republicans viewed as a recruiting setback.
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