House Speaker Mike Johnson is pushing back hard against polls showing Republicans in trouble heading into next week’s midterm elections, arguing that surveys are missing the energy he sees firsthand on the campaign trail.
“Those polls are wrong. They’re based on faulty analysis,” Johnson, R-La., told host Shannon Bream on “Fox News Sunday.”
Johnson argued that polling organizations have struggled to reach Republican voters, and that some are now acknowledging the problem. He pointed to a recent CNN analysis that found October generic ballot polls underestimated Republicans by an average of four points in 14 of the last 16 elections.
“Republicans are no longer responding to polls,” Johnson said.
The speaker has been traveling nonstop in the final stretch of the campaign. He said he has visited 21 states and 39 congressional districts in just the past three weeks, including Democratic-held districts the GOP hopes to flip.
Johnson described a simple test he runs at his events. He asks the crowd to raise their hands if they have answered a poll in the last six months.
“There’ll be like three hands among 300 people,” he said. “I’m telling you, these polls are off, all of them.”
Johnson repeated the argument Monday night on “The Ingraham Angle,” where host Laura Ingraham pressed him on a new Reuters/Ipsos poll and on election analyst Nate Silver’s view that the polls would have to be very wrong for Republicans to keep the House.
“Yes, the polls are wrong,” Johnson responded, adding that many voters are reluctant to share personal views with a stranger over the phone.
The speaker said he believes polls are grossly underestimating Republican enthusiasm, which he compared to the energy the party saw in 2024.
Johnson framed the midterms as a “contrast election,” telling viewers that voters face a choice between common sense and “crazy.” He argued that the Democratic Party has lurched sharply to the left and grown closer to the Democratic Socialists of America, which he predicted will drive voters toward the GOP.
“This is not our father’s Democrat Party,” Johnson said.
He said Republicans will campaign on their legislative record and offer voters a clear choice on border security, energy, public safety and the economy.
Johnson did acknowledge that many families are still feeling the squeeze of high household costs. He blamed unfavorable media coverage for shaping perceptions of the economy, but said Republicans need more time for their policies to take full effect.
He urged voters to consider which candidates will best serve their families and communities.
Johnson’s optimism stands in contrast to most public forecasts. The latest Fox News national poll gives Democrats an 11-point lead on the generic ballot, and several major election handicappers now rate Democrats as favorites to win the House.
Still, Republicans note that midterm polling has missed before, and that a shift of just a few points could change the outcome in dozens of close races.
For Johnson, the final week is about turnout. He is betting that the crowds he sees at rallies across the country are a better measure of the electorate than the numbers coming from pollsters.
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