Karl Rove, the veteran GOP strategist and prominent voice in Texas politics, is now reportedly urging Republicans to think carefully before opting for Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in next year’s primary — warning that doing so could hand Democrats a rare opportunity in the Lone Star State.
Speaking on Fox News’s “Sunday Night in America” with Trey Gowdy, Rove suggested that President Donald Trump, who has worked closely with Paxton and counts him as a loyal ally, may ultimately choose not to intervene in the primary. Despite Trump’s history of wading into Republican contests, Rove said the president likely understands the stakes in Texas.
“I think the president’s going to sit and watch,” Rove said. “He understands that it would be problematic if he were to endorse against a sitting Republican senator, particularly one as respected as John Cornyn.”
Rove, describing himself as a “longtime friend” of Cornyn, emphasized that the primary should be an easy win for Republicans — but only if the GOP selects the candidate with broad appeal. If Cornyn prevails, he said, the race against Democrats should be straightforward. If Paxton emerges as the nominee, however, the party could face what he called a preventable political crisis.
“And if his principal opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton, were to be the nominee — given the scandals, and indictments, and guilty pleas, and girlfriends, and mistresses, and jobs traded for mistresses for influence inside the attorney general’s office on issues important to corrupt, indicted real estate guys — that’s not going to be a pleasant opportunity for Republicans to keep that seat,” Rove warned, referencing allegations that have long shadowed Paxton despite his strong support among the conservative grassroots.
Rove’s remarks, come as the 2026 primary begins to take form — and as Cornyn appears to regain footing in what was once seen as Paxton’s race to lose. Polling earlier this year showed Paxton with a wide lead.
But newer numbers suggest a tightening contest: a survey from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University found Paxton supported by 34 percent of likely GOP voters, Cornyn close behind at 33 percent, and Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston registering 22 percent.
For Republicans, the question is not simply whom they prefer — but whether they are willing to gamble a Senate seat in a state that has trended more competitive in recent cycles.
Paxton remains a favorite of the party base, particularly those aligned with Trump’s populist movement and eager to push back against what they perceive as politically motivated legal attacks against him.
Cornyn, meanwhile, is viewed by party leadership as a steady hand — experienced, well-regarded in Washington, and capable of appealing to suburban voters crucial in a general election.
Rove’s warning underscores a broader divide in the GOP: a struggle between choosing the fighter many supporters want, and the nominee strategists believe can win. In Texas, Republicans have the advantage — but, as Rove put it, only if they avoid turning a “gimme” into a gift for Democrats.
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