A new poll out of the Pine Tree State is shaking up Maine’s political landscape, showing progressive oyster farmer Graham Platner holding commanding leads over both Democratic Gov. Janet Mills and longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins.
The University of New Hampshire Survey Center’s latest Pine Tree State poll, released Tuesday, found Platner leading Mills by a stunning 64 percent to 26 percent. Just 6 percent of respondents said they were undecided or did not know. That margin marks a four-point increase from October, when Platner led Mills 58 percent to 24 percent, with a much larger 14 percent still undecided at the time. The numbers suggest Platner has not only maintained his advantage but expanded it.
Platner also tops Collins in a hypothetical general election matchup, leading 49 percent to 38 percent. Nine percent said they were undecided, while 4 percent indicated they would support another candidate. Notably, Platner holds a nine-point advantage over Collins among independents — a key voting bloc in Maine elections.
By contrast, a potential showdown between Mills and Collins appears far tighter. The poll shows Mills at 41 percent and Collins at 40 percent, effectively tied within the survey’s 2.9-point margin of error. In that matchup, 10 percent of respondents were undecided and 9 percent preferred another candidate. Collins, however, holds a six-point edge among independents over Mills in that head-to-head scenario.
Public polling has consistently shown Platner ahead of Mills in what has become a closely watched Democratic primary. Democrats see Maine’s Senate seat as a prime pickup opportunity, though Collins has repeatedly proven to be a formidable opponent in past elections.
Mills has leaned on her record of winning statewide office as a Democrat and has highlighted her opposition to President Trump. Platner, meanwhile, has managed to remain politically resilient despite facing significant scrutiny last year. The candidate drew criticism over now-deleted social media posts in which he criticized law enforcement and downplayed sexual assault. Platner later distanced himself from those remarks.
The controversy led to the departure of several campaign staffers, adding turbulence to his Senate bid. Yet despite what in previous election cycles might have been considered major political liabilities, the polling suggests that Platner’s support has not significantly eroded.
The survey was conducted online between Feb. 12 and Feb. 16 and included responses from 1,162 Maine residents. Of those, 1,120 were identified as likely voters. The overall margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Among the sample were 478 likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points, and 406 likely GOP primary voters, with a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
With the race still unfolding, the numbers point to a volatile political environment in Maine — one where party insiders and political veterans alike may face an unpredictable electorate.
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