Representative Mikie Sherrill, Democrat of New Jersey, now reportedly holds an early lead in the state’s gubernatorial race, but Republicans argue the numbers reveal an opportunity in a contest that could test the durability of Democratic dominance in the Garden State.
A Quinnipiac University survey released this week found Sherrill ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli by eight percentage points, 49 percent to 41 percent, among likely voters.
The poll also reported that a Libertarian and socialist candidate each drew 1 percent support, while 4 percent of respondents remained undecided and 2 percent declined to answer.
The poll, conducted from Sept. 11 to 15, surveyed 1,238 likely voters and carries a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.
The result places Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot who rose to prominence in 2018 by flipping a traditionally Republican congressional district, as the early front-runner.
Both candidates recently began airing their first general election television ads, signaling that the campaign is shifting into high gear.
Ciattarelli, however, has proven to be a formidable Republican contender. After narrowly losing the 2021 gubernatorial contest to Gov. Phil Murphy, he secured the party’s nomination again this year, hoping to capitalize on what Republicans view as shifting ground in a state long thought to be beyond their reach.
In that previous race, Ciattarelli came within striking distance of Murphy, giving the GOP one of its strongest showings in years and demonstrating that Democrats’ hold on New Jersey may not be as unshakable as conventional wisdom suggests.
New Jersey, a state with a record of voting blue in presidential contests, has nonetheless shown a willingness to elect Republicans at the state level.
The GOP has taken encouragement not only from Ciattarelli’s near-upset in 2021 but also from momentum gained during the 2024 presidential race, when Republicans exceeded expectations in several parts of the state.
Gov. Murphy, who is leaving office at the end of his term, remains a polarizing figure.
The Quinnipiac poll reported that 48 percent of likely voters approved of his job performance while 44 percent disapproved, an approval rating that leaves open questions about how effectively his endorsement will translate for Sherrill.
Still, Murphy has been outspoken in his support for the Democratic nominee, crediting Sherrill with her military service and her 2018 victory in a district long held by Republicans.
“Mikie earned the trust and support of voters because they know she is a fighter — from her time serving as a U.S. Navy pilot to her role flipping a longtime Republican congressional district,” Murphy said in a statement earlier this summer. “As Governor, she will fight to lower costs, protect our freedoms, and build an economy that works for every family.”
For Ciattarelli, the challenge will be to translate growing Republican momentum into an outright victory in a state that has not elected a GOP governor since Chris Christie.
The current poll suggests a competitive contest, one where undecided voters and enthusiasm on the margins could determine the outcome.
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