Political commentator Bill O’Reilly argued Monday that one of the most significant strategic mistakes made during the conflict with Iran was the Pentagon’s apparent failure to fully account for the possibility that Tehran would seek to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a move that has since rattled energy markets and fueled economic uncertainty.
Speaking with host Batya Ungar-Sargon on NewsNation’s “Batya!,” O’Reilly said military planners should have anticipated the risk that Iran could target one of the world’s most important shipping corridors if the conflict failed to produce regime change.
“One major error by the Pentagon is they did not war-game the Strait of Hormuz,” O’Reilly said. “I can’t explain it; nobody knows why they didn’t.”
According to O’Reilly, any scenario involving prolonged resistance from Iran’s ruling clerics should have included the possibility that Tehran would attempt to pressure the global economy by disrupting traffic through the strategically vital waterway.
The former Fox News host nevertheless defended the original rationale behind the conflict, describing it as a “noble gesture” intended to protect the United States and the broader world from what he characterized as a terrorist state nearing possession of a nuclear weapon.
At the same time, O’Reilly emphasized that military action often produces consequences that planners do not anticipate.
“Once you start a war,” he said, “unintended consequences roll in.”
He argued that strategic miscalculations have accompanied numerous American military conflicts, including the Vietnam War, the Korean War, and World War II.
O’Reilly also pointed to civilian casualties resulting from the current conflict. He referenced the U.S. bombing of Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School at the beginning of the war on Feb. 28, an attack that reportedly killed more than 165 people, most of them children.
“A guy at the Pentagon did not wake up that morning and say, ‘I’m going to kill schoolgirls in Iran,’” O’Reilly said. “That didn’t happen.”
Instead, he described the strike as part of a broader bombing campaign aimed at destabilizing Iran’s infrastructure. While not defending the outcome, O’Reilly argued that civilian casualties are an unavoidable reality of modern warfare.
“If we bomb them, more schoolgirls are going to be killed,” he said. “That is what war is. I don’t justify it. It’s horrible.”
O’Reilly suggested President Trump now faces two choices during negotiations surrounding the 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran: secure meaningful access for inspectors to monitor Iran’s nuclear facilities or resume military strikes.
Ungar-Sargon, who has previously criticized the agreement as a “total capitulation” to Iran, challenged the value of renewed inspections. She noted that inspectors had been present in Iran as recently as “Operation Midnight Hammer,” when U.S. and Israeli forces first struck Iran in June 2025.
According to Ungar-Sargon, the more significant development is Iran’s apparent recognition of the economic leverage created by the Strait of Hormuz.
She argued that Tehran has effectively shifted the conflict from military and nuclear questions to economic pressure, describing the waterway as a powerful strategic tool because disruptions can affect global markets without triggering traditional deterrence.
O’Reilly agreed that Iranian leaders appear to have identified the strait as a means of retaliation capable of causing severe economic damage.
“They can probably cause a worldwide depression,” he said.
Despite his concerns, O’Reilly expressed cautious optimism about the current situation. He argued that Iran’s leadership faces a narrow set of options moving forward: allow inspectors access under the agreement or risk renewed military action.
The debate comes as uncertainty continues to surround the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Conflicting statements from U.S. and Iranian officials have created questions about the future of the waterway and global oil supplies. The closure of the strait contributed to rising prices and pushed inflation to its highest level in three years.
Following Iran’s agreement to the memorandum of understanding and the reopening of the strait, fuel prices have eased. According to AAA, the national average price of gasoline stood at $3.93 per gallon Tuesday morning.
Although Iran reopened the waterway after signing the agreement, its military signaled Saturday that it could close the strait again in response to Israeli strikes in Lebanon, despite a ceasefire between those parties.
Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command reported that commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased on Saturday and said safe passage through the critical corridor remained intact.
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