California’s 2026 gubernatorial race is beginning to take shape, and recent polling suggests Republicans are gaining momentum while Democrats struggle with a crowded field.
With about four months until the state’s jungle primary — where the top two finishers advance to the general election regardless of party — the top two Republican candidates are once again outpacing their Democratic rivals.
A new Emerson College Polling survey released Wednesday shows Republican candidate Steve Hilton leading the field with 17% support among likely voters. Close behind, fellow Republican Chad Bianco and Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell are tied at 14%, while former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter trails at 10%.
The survey, conducted Feb. 13-14 among 1,000 likely voters, reflects a shift from Emerson’s December poll. Hilton gained five points, Swalwell gained two, Bianco gained one, and Porter slipped by one point.
Among Democratic voters specifically, Swalwell leads with 23% support, followed by Porter at 14%, billionaire candidate Tom Steyer at 12%, and 22% remaining undecided. Republican voters are nearly evenly split between Hilton at 38% and Bianco at 37%, with 6% backing Swalwell and 11% undecided. Among independents, 22% support Hilton, 12% favor Bianco, 4% back Swalwell, and a notable 30% remain undecided.
The Emerson poll follows another survey conducted by Tavern Research between Feb. 2-5 among 1,097 likely voters. That poll, passed along by Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra’s campaign, showed Bianco leading with 20%, Hilton at 12%, and Swalwell at 10%.
With more than ten Democrats running for governor, the party’s vote appears to be divided ahead of the primary, potentially opening a path for Republicans to capitalize on the fragmentation.
Elections expert Paul Mitchell told KCRA3 Political Director Ashley Zavala that there is roughly a 12% chance that two Republicans could advance to the general election in California. While he described the odds as slim, Mitchell cautioned Democrats against dismissing the possibility outright.
Hilton, however, downplayed the scenario of two Republicans advancing. Instead, he suggested that two Democrats would most likely face off in November unless Republican voters unite behind a single candidate. In doing so, he singled out Bianco, signaling a more aggressive strategy in the GOP primary contest.
Hilton’s criticism of Bianco first surfaced during a January gubernatorial debate, where Hilton called on Bianco to exit the race over allegations that he knelt with Black Lives Matter protesters during the 2020 riots.
The tension escalated this week after Bianco shared the Tavern Research poll on social media. Hilton’s campaign responded by dismissing it as a “fake” Democrat “internal poll” that they claim is being pushed by Democrats to “boost the weaker Republican.”
“They know the BLM Bianco video will crater Republican turnout. Steve Hilton is leading in reputable independent polls, including the latest Emerson poll,” Hilton’s campaign wrote.
As California’s jungle primary approaches, the polling underscores a volatile landscape. With Democrats dividing their base across a crowded slate of candidates and Republicans jockeying for position, the race remains fluid — and potentially more competitive than in recent cycles.
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