Fox News is now forecasting that Democrats will take control of the House in next month’s midterm elections, marking the first time this election cycle the outlet has projected a Democratic win in either chamber of Congress.
“Combined with Democrats’ candidate quality improvements and a Republican-led redistricting effort that could fall short of expectations, the House is likely out of reach for the GOP this year,” Fox News contributor Rémy Numa wrote of his latest power rankings, released Tuesday.
The rankings show Democrats winning 219 House seats, enough to secure a majority, with 20 races moving in the party’s direction. Republicans are projected to hold 198 seats, while 18 races remain toss-ups.
“On a good night for the Democrats, the party will hold around 237 seats, or a gain of 22 from their current position,” Numa wrote. “That’s because toss-up seats have mostly fallen in one party’s direction in previous elections.”
Numa added that a “great night” for Democrats would mean picking off some Republican-leaning seats, pushing the party up to 249 seats.
If the toss-up races break toward the GOP, however, Republicans could finish with 216 seats. That would fall short of a majority but leave Democrats “with a mere two-vote cushion in the House,” according to Numa.
Numa pointed to rising gas, diesel and grocery prices as the driving force behind expected GOP losses and Democratic gains, writing that voters “keep saying they are feeling the pressure of those increases and blame Republicans for them.”
The battle for the Senate remains much tighter. The rankings show each party favored to win 47 seats, with six races in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas rated as toss-ups. Any of those contests could decide control of the upper chamber.
If Democrats were to sweep those seats, they would hold the majority “with two seats to spare,” Numa wrote. Still, he noted the forecast continues to show a path to victory for Republicans.
The toss-up races have held steady through the summer, but Numa said some Republican-leaning states could also turn competitive.
In Minnesota, Numa said Republican Senate candidate Michele Tafoya has gained ground but still trails Democrat Peggy Flanagan by a narrow margin. He projects Flanagan leading Tafoya 47-43, with the race moving from likely Democrat to lean Democrat.
“Republicans are fully united behind Tafoya, while 9 in 10 Democrats say they’ll support Flanagan’s bid. Independents are much less settled: 38 percent back Tafoya, 32 percent support Flanagan and 29 percent haven’t decided,” Numa wrote.
With the midterms just weeks away, polling has shown Democrats on track to win the House as the president’s popularity slides and concerns grow over the cost of living and energy prices.
As of Wednesday, Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) gives Democrats a 77 percent chance of winning the House, with the party likely holding 235 seats to Republicans’ 200.
Democrats face a much narrower road in the Senate. DDHQ puts their odds of winning the chamber at 56 percent. In that scenario, Republicans would hold 49 seats.
