A new Fox News poll released this week suggests momentum may be shifting in one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate contests, with Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, holding a narrow lead over progressive challenger Graham Platner for the first time in a major public survey.
The poll marks a notable change in the race after earlier surveys showed Platner with a significant advantage. Polling conducted in May gave the Democratic challenger leads ranging from seven to nine points. By late June, however, a New York Times/Siena poll showed that advantage shrinking to just two points.
Now, the latest Fox News survey is the first major poll to place Collins ahead.
Although Fox News is widely known as a right-leaning outlet, its polling operation has long been regarded as one of the strongest in the industry and has at times drawn criticism from President Donald Trump.
Fox News anchor Dana Perino highlighted the findings during Wednesday’s broadcast, noting the importance of the Maine race in determining control of the U.S. Senate.
“Let’s get to the midterms. Control of the Senate’s hanging in the balance, and if Democrats are able to flip that chamber, the race in Maine is seen as a must-win,” Perino said. “New Fox polling shows Susan Collins has a narrow lead among all voters, but challenger Graham Platner leads among the extremely motivated.”
Perino then asked Fox News political analyst and former Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus to explain the significance of the results.
Priebus pointed to Collins’ previous statewide success, noting she won her last Senate race by nine points during the high-turnout 2020 election. However, he cautioned that midterm elections often produce different turnout patterns than presidential election years.
“This is midterm turnout,” Priebus said, arguing that Collins’ campaign should focus on defining Platner for voters while continuing to build support for the incumbent senator.
He said Collins needs to spend resources highlighting what he described as Platner’s negatives while also emphasizing her own record and focusing heavily on voter turnout efforts.
Priebus also pointed to demographic findings in the poll that he said stood out.
According to his analysis, Collins performed particularly well among rural Maine voters and among voters without a college degree. He argued those results suggest Platner’s support comes primarily from “rich, super-educated, non-religiously affiliated liberal” voters rather than the working-class rural constituency he has emphasized.
Priebus added that Collins leading among all registered voters was an encouraging sign for her campaign.
Perino also highlighted another finding from the survey, noting that 54% of respondents said Platner lacks the judgment to serve, while 53% said Collins has been in office too long. She suggested those competing perceptions could become central themes in the campaigns moving forward.
The Fox News poll was conducted from June 23 through June 27 among 1,003 registered Maine voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
The survey also found Democratic gubernatorial nominee Hannah Pingree outperforming Platner. According to the poll, Pingree leads her Republican opponent by 11 points, placing her 14 points ahead of Platner’s standing in the Senate race.
Favorability ratings also favored Collins relative to her challenger. The poll found Platner with a 43% favorable and 53% unfavorable rating, while Collins posted a 47% favorable and 50% unfavorable split, leaving her three points underwater compared with Platner’s 10-point net negative rating.
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