Veteran Democratic strategist and former Clinton pollster Mark Penn said Thursday that Republican Rep. Mike Rogers may have a path to victory in Michigan’s open U.S. Senate race, arguing that Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed could struggle to unite his party’s moderate voters following a closely contested primary.
Penn discussed the race during an appearance on Fox News after El-Sayed narrowly defeated Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., in Tuesday’s Democratic primary. The razor-thin victory has fueled widespread speculation over whether the progressive candidate can hold together the Democratic coalition in the general election.
Fox News anchor Bill Hemmer asked Penn for his assessment of the race and what the primary results reveal heading into November.
“Mark Penn, how do you dissect these numbers right now?” Hemmer asked.
Penn cautioned against drawing direct conclusions from primary voting patterns, particularly regarding support among Black voters.
“Well, I would not confuse how the Black community voted in a primary versus how they’ll vote in a general election,” Penn said.
He predicted that Democratic voters, including Black voters and students, are likely to rally behind their party’s nominee once the general election campaign is underway.
“I think you will find that the Black vote will, by and large, consolidate behind the Democrats in the Black election, and those students—they are gonna stick with their choice,” Penn said, referring to Stevens’ support among Black voters during the primary.
Penn said the more significant question is whether Democrats who supported Stevens will ultimately back El-Sayed or instead cross party lines.
“The question is whether or not a lot of the moderate Democrats who were for Stevens will say, ‘I just won’t go there, I will defect from my party,’” Penn said.
According to Penn, even a relatively small shift among moderate Democratic voters could be enough to decide the election.
“Is it possible to find 5% that will do that?” he asked. “It is highly likely that you’re gonna find 5% of those Stevens voters who are going to switch to the other side, and that alone would give a margin of victory to Rogers.”
The Democratic primary also highlighted divisions within the party.
According to the article, several moderate Michigan Democrats, including Rep. Hillary Scholten, publicly stated during the primary campaign that they could not support El-Sayed in the general election. They accused him of sexism and embracing anti-American rhetoric.
El-Sayed’s ties to progressive media personality Hasan Piker also received attention throughout the campaign. The article notes that Piker has made a number of controversial comments over the years, including saying the United States deserved the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and praising China’s autocratic government.
Following his primary victory Tuesday night, El-Sayed immediately shifted his focus to the general election, challenging Rogers to participate in five debates.
During his victory speech, El-Sayed called the Republican congressman a coward while urging him to agree to the proposed debate schedule.
Penn’s analysis also aligned with recent prediction market data referenced by CNN data analyst Harry Enten.
According to the article, Kalshi prediction markets highlighted by Enten indicate that El-Sayed’s prospects against Rogers have weakened following the Democratic primary, suggesting the race may be more competitive than some expected as Michigan voters prepare to choose a successor in the state’s open U.S. Senate contest.
