CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten raised concerns Wednesday about pre-election polling that has significantly overstated support for progressive candidates in recent Democratic primaries.
Enten addressed the polling misses on “CNN News Central,” just hours after Francesca Hong was defeated in the Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor.
Ahead of Tuesday’s contest, polling had consistently shown Hong holding a sizable advantage over Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. But Enten pointed out that the polls ultimately missed the mark by a substantial margin.
“I mean, my God, can we catch a break here?” Enten said.
Enten displayed a graphic declaring, “Polls Overstate Lefties in Dem Primaries,” before comparing the Wisconsin results to another recent polling miss in Michigan.
“You know, last week it was 10 points. You think 10 points is a lot? How about 20 points in Wisconsin?” Enten said.
The CNN analyst acknowledged that the Wisconsin race experienced some late changes to the field, with candidates entering and exiting the contest.
Enten said he was already skeptical that polling showing Hong ahead by approximately 20 points would actually translate into the final results following what had happened in Michigan.
But the Wisconsin polling suffered another major miss.
“The polls overstated the lefties in Wisconsin just like they did in another Great Lakes battleground state of Michigan,” Enten said.
CNN host John Berman asked Enten what could be causing the polling problems.
Enten suggested younger voters could be part of the explanation.
He pointed to the performances of Hong in Wisconsin and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. According to Enten, both candidates won the five counties in their respective states that had the highest percentage of voters under the age of 40.
Enten suggested polling samples could include “too many” younger progressives, potentially creating an inflated picture of how much support progressive candidates actually have among the broader Democratic electorate.
The results, Enten argued, could also raise questions about perceptions that Democratic socialism is gaining significant ground within the Democratic Party.
“You’ve got to look at these results and say, ‘Hey, wait a minute, maybe Johnny, maybe these polls are overestimating how much that Democratic socialism is rising within the Democratic Party,’” Enten said.
He pointed to two consecutive statewide Democratic contests in which progressive candidates performed considerably worse than pre-election polling had suggested.
“Because in two key statewide races in a row, what we’ve seen is the left is being vastly overestimated,” Enten continued.
The Wisconsin contest represented the most dramatic example cited by Enten.
“In the case of Wisconsin, the Democratic Socialist being vastly overestimated by 20 points,” he said.
Enten’s analysis followed Hong’s defeat despite polling that had repeatedly indicated she held a commanding advantage over Crowley heading into Tuesday’s Democratic gubernatorial primary.
[READ MORE: Senate Republicans Back Thune as Trump Questions His Future as GOP Leader]
