California’s gubernatorial contest is now reportedly shaping up to be an unexpectedly competitive battle, with new polling suggesting that internal divisions among Democrats could open the door for a Republican victory in a state long dominated by the party.
According to a recent survey commissioned by the California Democratic Party and conducted by Evitarus, Republican candidates Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco are currently leading the field with 16 percent and 14 percent support, respectively. If those numbers hold through California’s so-called “jungle primary,” both Republicans would advance to the general election in November—effectively locking Democrats out of the final round.
Such an outcome would all but guarantee a Republican becomes governor of the nation’s most populous state, a stunning development given California’s recent political history.
On the Democratic side, the vote appears fractured. Rep. Eric Swalwell, former Rep. Katie Porter, and activist Tom Steyer are each tied at 10 percent, illustrating a crowded field struggling to consolidate support.
The dynamics of the race are being driven in large part by the state’s primary system, where all candidates compete on a single ballot and only the top two vote-getters—regardless of party—advance. With eight prominent Democrats in the race and no signs of anyone stepping aside, the risk of splitting the vote looms large.
Republicans, by contrast, appear more unified behind Hilton and Bianco, both of whom have maintained consistent leads in polling over recent months. Their steady positioning suggests that while Democrats compete among themselves, GOP candidates are benefiting from a more consolidated base.
Earlier data pointed to the same trend. A December poll conducted by FM3 for the California Issues Forum showed Hilton holding a narrow one-point lead over Bianco and Swalwell, who were tied at 17 percent. While the margins have shifted, the broader pattern has remained: Republicans at the top, Democrats divided below.
Still, the race is far from settled. The Evitarus poll found that 24 percent of likely voters remain undecided, a significant portion of the electorate that could reshape the outcome as the June 2 primary approaches. That uncertainty leaves room for late movement, but also adds to the volatility of an already unpredictable contest.
The stakes of that uncertainty have not gone unnoticed. NBC News reporter Sahil Kapur warned that Democrats face a very real possibility of “splitting the vote between their many candidates,” potentially locking themselves out of the general election entirely. Such a scenario, he suggested, would amount to one of the party’s most consequential political miscalculations in recent memory.
At its core, the race highlights a broader lesson in electoral politics: unity can be just as decisive as ideology. While Democrats continue to dominate statewide registration numbers, their crowded field risks diluting that advantage at the worst possible moment.
As the primary nears, the question is whether Democratic voters will coalesce around a leading candidate in time—or whether internal competition will hand Republicans an opening that few would have predicted in California.
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