Fox News moved South Carolina’s U.S. Senate race from “Lean R” to “Toss-up” Thursday, putting a traditionally reliable Republican seat squarely in play just days before Tuesday’s midterm elections.
The race pits appointed Republican Sen. Darline Graham against Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician. Graham was appointed to the seat following the death of her brother, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, with President Donald Trump pushing for her nomination.
Fox News anchor Bill Hemmer walked viewers through the updated rankings on “America’s Newsroom,” noting that South Carolina had joined the yellow toss-up column overnight.
Hemmer said the battleground states on the map are all within the margin of error, meaning they “could be toss-ups come Tuesday.” He pointed to Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is on the ballot, and Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson, as additional margin-of-error contests.
The anchor noted that in a typical cycle, Republicans would count on South Carolina, Texas, Iowa and Alaska to get them to 50 seats, but said current polling suggests that may not be how things play out.
The shift follows a New York Times/Siena poll showing Graham and Andrews deadlocked at 48% apiece. A separate poll released Monday by FOX Carolina had Graham narrowly ahead, 47% to 46%, well within the margin of error. Graham led by an average of 2.4 points as of Thursday, according to RealClearPolling.
Fox News’ Power Rankings noted that Republicans already viewed the contest as uncomfortably close earlier in the week, and that view is now widely shared.
Trump carried South Carolina by nearly 18 points in 2024, and he returned to the state Thursday to rally for Graham in the Upstate region, where she underperformed in her primary runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman. Norman has yet to endorse her campaign.
The Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC backing Senate Republicans, spent $5 million in South Carolina in early October to shore up Graham’s bid.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., appeared on “America’s Newsroom” Thursday and expressed optimism about Graham’s chances of winning a full term.
Andrews has sought to paint Graham as inexperienced and as an extension of her brother, one of Trump’s closest Senate allies.
Whoever wins is expected to become the first woman elected to the U.S. Senate from South Carolina.
The South Carolina move was one of three Senate shifts in the final Fox News Power Rankings of the 2026 cycle, which also moved Ohio’s Senate race to “Lean D.” The forecast also included 19 shifts in House races.
Overall, Fox News rates the battle for the Senate a toss-up, with six states set to decide the majority. Democrats are favored in 48 seats, and neither party currently holds a projected majority.
Under the forecast, a strong night for Democrats could push them as high as 54 seats, while a strong night for Republicans would see the GOP hold control with as many as 52.
Voters head to the polls Tuesday.
