Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a project of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, moved four gubernatorial races toward Democrats on Thursday, including the Ohio contest that has drawn national attention over a controversial attack ad from Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy.
Ramaswamy’s campaign released an ad this week featuring Donna Arthur, the estranged mother of his Democratic opponent Amy Acton. In the ad, Arthur calls her daughter a “liar” and urges viewers not to vote for her.
Acton has spoken publicly for years, well before running for office, about her troubled childhood, including the reason her mother lost custody: documented neglect and abuse, including sexual abuse by her stepfather from the ages of 9 to 12. Arthur sided with her husband, and the two have not spoken since she lost custody.
The ad sparked swift condemnation from both sides of the aisle, with many prominent conservatives saying it made them more sympathetic toward Acton. National Review and other outlets uncovered legal documents confirming Acton’s account, fueling further criticism.
Ramaswamy’s campaign, however, doubled down. It continued to attack Acton as a “serial fabulist” and spent several million dollars to air the ad on television across Ohio.
Ramaswamy was already trailing Acton in the polls before the uproar. CNN data analyst Harry Enten noted Ramaswamy’s “worst this century” polling among Ohio independents the day before the ad was released. Several prediction markets then showed Ramaswamy’s chances of winning dropping sharply in the wake of the backlash.
The Crystal Ball’s latest ratings follow a similar path and point directly to the ad as a major drag on Ramaswamy.
The report, written by Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, said Democrats are now “at least narrowly favored” in enough states that the analysts expect the party to win a majority of governorships nationwide.
“The most notable rating change comes in the open Ohio governorship,” the report said of the shift from Toss-Up to Leans Democratic, “which has been in the national spotlight because of an explosive—and desperate—attack ad” by Ramaswamy.
The analysts wrote that the race “has already been very nasty” and “took a darker turn earlier this week” when the ad began circulating. They noted that numerous Republicans have condemned it, though Vice President JD Vance and Ramaswamy continue to defend it.
Kondik and Coleman called the ad “an awfully risky and desperate move” for a candidate who has “already thrown the kitchen sink at Acton yet appears to be behind.”
They did offer caveats, writing that “Ohio is clearly a red-leaning state now,” that Black voter turnout has been “sagging,” and that many analysts have raised concerns about polling accuracy.
“Democrats need a lot to go right in order to win in Ohio,” they wrote. “But a lot appears to be going right.”
The Crystal Ball also shifted three other open gubernatorial races. Alabama, where Sen. Tommy Tuberville faces former Democratic Sen. Doug Jones, moved from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Michigan, pitting Rep. John James against Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, moved from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. Oklahoma, where former state Budget Secretary Mike Mazzei faces Democratic state House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson, moved from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
Most of the Crystal Ball’s rating changes in recent months have favored Democrats, including 13 House races and the Georgia Senate race in July, three gubernatorial races in early September, and two Senate races and two gubernatorial races at the start of this month.
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