Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., warned Monday that it is “almost statistically impossible” for Republicans to keep control of the House in the 2026 midterm elections.
Tillis made the remarks during an appearance on MS NOW’s “The Beat,” where host Ari Melber asked him about divisions within the GOP driven by President Donald Trump.
“I’m supporting the president because he’s the head of the party, not because he’s Donald J. Trump, but because he is the face of our party,” Tillis said. “And I want my party to be in the best position for elections. And we’re going to, we’re going to take a little bit of a hit this season and recover from it, I believe.”
Tillis, who is not running for reelection, then offered a grim outlook for House Republicans.
“I think the House is almost statistically impossible to win at this point,” he said.
The North Carolina senator was more optimistic about the upper chamber, saying he believes Republicans will hold on to the Senate — though just barely.
“It will be a tight margin, but I still think we pull it out,” Tillis said.
“Because we’ve got great candidates in Maine, Ohio, Arkansas. They’ve just got to run hard and we’ve got to support them,” he added.
Tillis’ comments come as GOP candidates face a tough midterm landscape. Republicans are contending with Trump’s low approval ratings, an unpopular war in Iran, a tariff war with Canada and inflation, with the cost of living remaining a concern for voters.
Polling averages consider the Senate a toss-up.
Democrats need to pick up at least four seats to win back control of the upper chamber. According to recent New York Times/Siena polling, races in Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa, Texas and Alaska remain competitive.
The polling found Democrats ahead by 6 points in the Texas Senate race, 7 points in Alaska and 3 points in Ohio. Democratic candidates trail by 1 point in Iowa and are tied in Kansas.
However, the surveys in Ohio, Iowa and Kansas all fall within the margin of error. The margin of error is 4.5 points in Ohio and 4.6 points in both Iowa and Kansas.
Tillis’ own open seat in North Carolina also looks to be in jeopardy for Republicans. Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) projects that the seat will likely go to Democratic Senate candidate Roy Cooper, the state’s former governor, giving him an 84% probability of flipping it.
DDHQ’s broader forecast also points to a difficult November for the GOP. The outlet gives Democrats a 76% probability of flipping the House and a 56% chance of retaking the Senate.
Despite the warning signs, Tillis made clear he is standing behind the president as the leader of the party and expressed confidence that Republicans will bounce back from whatever losses they suffer this cycle.
His message to fellow Republicans was straightforward: the party’s Senate candidates need to run hard, and the GOP needs to get behind them if it hopes to keep its majority in the upper chamber.
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