CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten is warning that Democrats may be confronting a political movement within their own party that rivals—and even surpasses—the Republican Tea Party wave that reshaped the GOP more than a decade ago.
Appearing on CNN with anchor John Berman on Thursday, Enten pointed to growing dissatisfaction among Democratic voters with their own congressional party, arguing that the numbers suggest a more turbulent political environment than Republicans experienced during the rise of the Tea Party movement around 2010.
The Tea Party era saw establishment Republicans face significant challenges from grassroots conservatives, paving the way for figures such as Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and other candidates who successfully campaigned against longtime party insiders.
According to Enten, current polling indicates Democrats are facing even greater unrest within their own ranks.
Citing data from Quinnipiac polling, Enten noted that in 2010, 52% of Republicans approved of their own party in Congress during the height of the Tea Party movement. By comparison, only 47% of Democrats currently approve of their own party members serving in Congress.
“Democrats dislike their party more than Republicans did during the Tea Party wave of 2010,” Enten said. “Just 47% of Democrats now approve of their own party in Congress. As I said, it’s a new tea party, but it’s a tea party on steroids.”
Enten argued that the dissatisfaction is already producing tangible political consequences, pointing to a string of primary defeats suffered by incumbent Democrats.
Among those defeated in recent primaries were Reps. Dan Goldman of New York, Adriano Espaillat of New York, and Diana DeGette of Colorado, all of whom lost to challengers aligned with the party’s progressive or Democratic socialist wing.
The analyst contrasted those developments with the Republican experience during the Tea Party movement.
In 2010, Enten noted, incumbent House Republicans lost just two primary races. This year, however, five incumbent Democratic members of Congress have already been defeated in their primaries.
“We’re dealing with more defeats right now in Congress for Democrats, those Democratic incumbents, than you even saw during the Tea Party wave for Republicans back in 2010,” Enten said.
He also cited forecasting data from the prediction market Kalshi, which currently places the likelihood of six or more incumbent Democrats losing their primaries at greater than 80%.
Based on those projections, Enten cautioned that the trend could continue before the primary season concludes.
“It’s likely to get even worse,” he warned.
Enten is not the only political observer drawing comparisons between today’s Democratic Party and the Republican Party during the Tea Party era.
Veteran Republican strategist Karl Rove recently offered a similar assessment, arguing that the growing influence of Democratic Socialist candidates could reshape the Democratic caucus in much the same way the Tea Party and, later, the Freedom Caucus transformed Republican politics.
“You think the Republicans had problems with the Freedom Caucus or before them the Tea Party,” Rove said. “It’s gonna be nothing like what the Democratic Socialists are going to create inside the Democratic caucus.”
Enten’s analysis and Rove’s remarks come as progressive challengers continue to score victories against sitting Democratic lawmakers, fueling debate over the direction of the party and the growing influence of its left flank heading into future elections.
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