Consumer sentiment in the United States fell sharply in April, hitting a record low as the economic effects of the Iran conflict continue to ripple through everyday life, according to a new survey from the University of Michigan.
The report found that consumer confidence dropped nearly 11 percent from March, continuing a steady decline that began after the U.S. and Israel launched a joint military campaign against Iran on Feb. 28. What began as a foreign policy decision has quickly translated into real economic pressure at home, particularly through rising energy costs tied to disruptions in global oil supply.
At the center of the issue is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. The more than 40-day conflict led to the closure of the strait, choking off a key artery for global energy markets. As a result, oil and gas prices have surged, adding strain to already uneasy markets and squeezing American consumers.
President Donald Trump announced earlier this week that a two-week ceasefire agreement had been reached with Iran, a development that has offered some cautious optimism. Stock markets have responded positively, and there are expectations that gas prices could ease if stability holds. Still, uncertainty remains over whether Iran will fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, especially as tensions persist in the region, including Israeli strikes targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Trump himself voiced frustration on Thursday, writing on Truth Social that Iran is doing “a very poor job” of allowing oil shipments through the strait. The comment reflects ongoing concerns that the ceasefire, while promising, may not yet be enough to fully restore normal economic conditions.
Survey Director Joanne Hsu noted that much of the data was collected before the ceasefire announcement, meaning consumer attitudes captured in the report reflect peak uncertainty during the conflict. Even so, the breadth of the decline is striking. Consumer sentiment is now 9 percent lower than it was at the same time last year, with confidence dropping across all demographic groups, including age, income, and political affiliation.
Americans are not just worried about the broader economy—they are increasingly concerned about their own financial stability. The survey found that assessments of personal finances fell by 11 percent, with respondents pointing to rising prices and weakening asset values as major concerns.
Looking ahead, confidence in business conditions has also taken a hit. Expectations for the economy one year from now dropped by 20 percent, with a 6 percent decline compared to a year ago. At the same time, inflation fears are growing. The percentage of consumers expecting prices to rise over the next year climbed from 3.8 percent in March to 4.8 percent in April.
Respondents who anticipate higher inflation frequently cited the Iran conflict as a driving factor, pointing to supply disruptions and rising fuel costs as key reasons for their concerns. The data suggests that while geopolitical decisions may be made overseas, their consequences are being felt in American households.
Hsu indicated that there is potential for improvement if the situation stabilizes. “Economic expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas prices have moderated,” she wrote.
For now, however, the numbers paint a clear picture: even a limited conflict can carry significant economic consequences. While the ceasefire offers a possible path forward, the lingering uncertainty serves as a reminder that the costs of war are not confined to the battlefield—they are also measured in the financial anxiety of everyday Americans.
