A new University of Houston survey suggests Texas voters are setting up a volatile and closely watched U.S. Senate primary season, with Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Jasmine Crockett emerging as the early frontrunners in their respective party contests just days before early voting begins.
According to the poll, conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs in late January, Paxton currently leads incumbent Sen. John Cornyn among likely Republican primary voters. Paxton holds 38 percent support, compared to Cornyn’s 31 percent. Rep. Wesley Hunt trails both candidates with 17 percent, while 12 percent of GOP primary voters remain undecided.
Early voting for the March 3 primary begins Feb. 17, and with no candidate currently securing a majority, the race could be headed for a runoff in May.
The survey also tested hypothetical head-to-head matchups within the Republican primary. In a direct contest, Paxton would defeat Cornyn by an 11-point margin, 51 percent to 40 percent. Paxton would also comfortably beat Hunt, 56 percent to 33 percent. Cornyn, meanwhile, would edge out Hunt in a hypothetical matchup, 46 percent to 39 percent.
On the Democratic side, the poll shows Rep. Jasmine Crockett leading Texas State House Rep. James Talarico among likely Democratic primary voters. Crockett draws 47 percent support to Talarico’s 39 percent. Another 2 percent back Ahmad Hassan, while 12 percent say they are undecided, signaling a competitive but narrowing contest as voting approaches.
Looking ahead to November, the survey suggests a highly competitive general election regardless of which candidates advance. In hypothetical matchups between Republicans and Democrats, no candidate from either party shows a decisive advantage.
Paxton and Cornyn both narrowly defeat Crockett in general election scenarios, each by a 45 percent to 43 percent margin. Against Talarico, Paxton posts a slightly stronger showing, winning 46 percent to 44 percent, while Cornyn edges Talarico 44 percent to 43 percent.
Rep. Wesley Hunt, while trailing in the GOP primary, performs relatively well in general election hypotheticals. The poll shows Hunt with a three-point advantage over Crockett and a four-point edge over Talarico, suggesting broader crossover appeal in a statewide race.
In all six general election matchups tested, Libertarian candidate Ted Brown draws between 3 and 5 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, a notable share of voters — between 7 and 9 percent — say they are still undecided, underscoring how fluid the race remains months ahead of Election Day.
The survey was conducted between Jan. 20 and Jan. 31 and includes responses from 1,502 likely voters statewide. The overall margin of error is plus or minus 2.53 percentage points. The sample includes 550 likely Republican primary voters and 550 likely Democratic primary voters, each with a margin of error of 4.18 percentage points.
With early voting imminent and the potential for runoff elections looming, the poll highlights growing uncertainty and intensity in one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate races.
