In his “gut” prediction for the 2024 election, Nate Silver, the statistical expert responsible for FiveThirtyEight’s polling engine, has now predicted that former President Donald Trump will emerge victorious.
On Wednesday, Silver, whose predictions have been in accordance with the political trajectory for more than a decade, disclosed his intuition regarding this year’s election in an article published in the New York Times.
He provided the response that people were pressing him on after elucidating the “unsatisfying” statistics forecast, which indicated that Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump were polling within a percentage point.
“So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.” Silver wrote.
Silver also addressed the concept of “shy Trump voters,” a theory that posits that certain Trump supporters refrain from disclosing their preferences in polls.
The pollster’s final analysis was not entirely detrimental to Democrats. In spite of his initial gut prediction, he reminded readers that polls frequently fail by three or four points, which could result in a bias in either direction.
Put another way: according to Silver the data says that the race is still a complete toss-up.
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