President Donald Trump on Thursday announced plans for an unprecedented mid-decade census that would exclude noncitizens from the national count, vowing to conduct a “new and highly accurate CENSUS” shaped by the outcome of the 2024 election.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump declared that “People who are in our country illegally will NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS,” reviving efforts to alter the foundational practice of counting all residents—regardless of immigration status—as mandated by the U.S. Constitution since 1790.
The proposal marks a significant break from historical precedent, writes Politico. The Constitution requires a decennial census—last conducted in 2020—to apportion seats in the House of Representatives and guide the distribution of hundreds of billions in federal and state funding. No administration has ever attempted to conduct a national census mid-decade, let alone exclude entire categories of residents.
Trump’s move echoes his first-term attempt to insert a citizenship question into the 2020 census—a plan blocked by the Supreme Court in 2019. Experts at the time warned that such changes could undercount immigrant-heavy states like California, Texas, and New York, shifting political power and resources away from diverse urban centers.
The logistical and legal hurdles to Trump’s plan are formidable. By statute, census questions must be submitted to Congress two years in advance, and planning for the 2030 census is already underway. It remains unclear whether Trump seeks to use the mid-decade count for reapportionment or merely as a political pressure campaign to influence redistricting.
Nevertheless, the political timing is no accident. The proposal arrives as Trump and his allies urge Republican-controlled legislatures in states like Texas to redraw congressional maps before the next election cycle. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and others have amplified Trump’s critique of the 2020 census, calling it “flawed” due to pandemic-era disruptions.
A 2022 report by the Census Bureau confirmed that the 2020 count suffered from significant undercounts of Black, Hispanic, and Native American populations—and overcounts of white and Asian populations—complications likely intensified by COVID-19 and political interference. Still, experts warn that excluding noncitizens altogether would distort representation even more drastically, raising constitutional concerns that could trigger a wave of litigation.
The recent resignation of Census Bureau Director Robert Santos, appointed by President Joe Biden, has added fuel to the debate. Though Santos cited family reasons, his departure has left a leadership vacuum just as Trump seeks to reshape the institution. No successor has been named.
The poor census, along with gerrymandering in states like Illinois and Massachusetts, has likely helped Democrats maintain a large minority in the House that puts them on the precipice of taking the gavel in 2026.
