A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey shows the special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District is unexpectedly close, with Republican Matt Van Epps holding a narrow lead over Democrat Aftyn Behn — despite the district’s longstanding reputation as solidly red.
The poll, released Wednesday, shows Van Epps, a former commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services, at 48% among likely voters and those who have already cast ballots. Democrat Aftyn Behn — a far-left state representative with a track record of controversial statements — sits at 46%. Another 5% remain undecided.
When undecided voters are asked which way they lean, Van Epps’ support rises to 49%, while Behn edges up to 47% — still within the poll’s 3.9-point margin of error.
High Stakes in a Deep-Red District
The special election, scheduled for December 2, will determine who replaces former Rep. Mark Green (R-TN), who resigned earlier this year to pursue private-sector opportunities. Tennessee’s 7th District spans the state from north to south, covering areas from the Kentucky border to Alabama and including portions of north and west Nashville.
The 7th District has long been considered a Republican stronghold, but Democrats — buoyed by recent overperformances in other states — have poured significant money and resources into this race. High-profile Democratic surrogates have been dispatched to the district in hopes of manufacturing an upset.
The Issues Driving the Race
Voters in the survey identified the economy as their top concern at 38%, followed by housing affordability (15%), and health care and “threats to democracy” tied at 13% each.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said turnout will decide the race.
“The special election will come down to what groups are motivated to turn out on election day — and who stays home,” he said.
Early Voting Breaks for Behn — Election Day Favors Van Epps
According to the poll:
-
Early voters support Behn by a wide 56% to 42% margin.
-
Election Day voters break decisively for Van Epps, 51% to 39%.
The demographic breakdown shows Behn heavily reliant on younger voters — a group notoriously inconsistent in showing up on Election Day:
-
Voters under 40 support Behn 64%.
-
Voters over 70 back Van Epps by 61% — a demographic that typically turns out in force.
A Close Race — But Advantage Van Epps
While Democrats are attempting to nationalize the race and drive up turnout among younger, left-leaning voters, Van Epps maintains a consistent edge among older and Election-Day voters — traditionally the decisive bloc in special elections.
If Republicans turn out at normal levels in this heavily conservative district, Van Epps remains the clear favorite. If turnout collapses or Democrats manage an atypically strong Election Day presence, the race could tighten further.
For now, the poll shows a competitive race — but still one in which the Republican candidate holds the advantage heading into the final stretch.
