Representative Elise Stefanik of New York, a rising Republican figure and close ally of President Donald Trump, has now reportedly inched ahead of Gov. Kathy Hochul in the state’s closely watched gubernatorial contest, according to a new survey released Tuesday by the Manhattan Institute.
The poll, conducted in late October, shows Ms. Stefanik with 43 percent support compared to Ms. Hochul’s 42 percent — a statistical tie but one that suggests a notable shift in momentum toward the Republican challenger. Another 9 percent of voters said they preferred another candidate, while 7 percent remained undecided.
Just two months ago, Ms. Hochul held a commanding 14-point advantage in a Siena College poll, underscoring how quickly the political landscape has shifted as the governor faces voter frustration over crime, cost-of-living pressures, and one-party Democratic control in Albany. Stefanik’s allies argue New Yorkers are signaling they are ready for change.
“New Yorkers of all political parties are hungry for new commonsense leadership after decades of Hochul’s failed single party Democrat rule,” Bernadette Breslin, a spokesperson for Ms. Stefanik’s campaign, said in a statement responding to the poll. “Elise Stefanik and the people of New York can and will win this righteous fight to Save New York.”
Ms. Stefanik has taken an increasingly aggressive posture in recent weeks, targeting Ms. Hochul for what she calls poor judgment and misplaced priorities, including the governor’s endorsement of Zohran Mamdani, the New York City Democratic mayoral candidate. During a September appearance on Fox News, Ms. Stefanik labeled Ms. Hochul “the worst governor in America” and accused her of caving to extreme activists. “It was only a matter of time before she bent the knee for this raging antisemite communist,” she said of Ms. Hochul’s support for Mr. Mamdani.
The Manhattan Institute survey also found Mr. Mamdani holding a strong lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the mayoral race, a result likely to bolster Republican arguments that the state Democratic Party has moved too far left for many voters.
Ms. Hochul’s campaign, for its part, has responded with sharp attacks of its own. Her spokesperson, Sarafina Chitika, dismissed the poll results entirely. “You’ve got to hand it to Sellout Stefanik: when her own polls don’t reflect reality, she can count on Trump and his megadonors – like Betsy DeVos and Paul Singer – to repeat her lies,“ she said. “Unfortunately for her, New Yorkers aren’t interested in letting an unhinged Trump enabler anywhere near the Governor’s mansion.”
The governor has also criticized Republican rhetoric more broadly, suggesting that comments emerging from conservative ranks contribute to inflammatory discourse. Citing reports of a Young Republicans group chat using Nazi terminology, Ms. Hochul argued that GOP leaders should look inward. “Look at your inflammatory words,” she told reporters. “And maybe they have an effect on these young people.”
The poll surveyed 600 likely voters in New York City and 300 registered voters statewide from Oct. 22 to 26, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. While the result effectively remains a dead heat, it reflects a tightening race and marks the most competitive Republican statewide bid New York has seen in years — a clear warning sign for Democrats heading into the final weeks of the campaign.
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