With Vice President Kamala Harris bowing out of California’s looming gubernatorial race, the state’s political landscape is showing signs of unexpected competitiveness — and a potential opening for Republicans.
A new Emerson College Polling survey places Democratic former Rep. Katie Porter in the lead with 18 percent support, but Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton has emerged as a formidable challenger, securing 12 percent despite entering the race only in late April.
Under California’s nonpartisan primary system, the top two finishers — regardless of party — advance to the general election.
The numbers follow Harris’s announcement that she would not seek to replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom, a move that Democrats had counted on to consolidate their base.
“With Kamala Harris officially out of the race, Katie Porter has emerged as the Democratic frontrunner, increasing her support from 12 percent to 18 percent since the April Emerson poll,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
He noted Hilton’s rapid ascent as well, crediting his late entry for energizing Republican voters.
Other candidates lag far behind. Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco polled at 7 percent, followed by Democrat former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa with 5 percent, and Republican-turned-Democrat developer Rick Caruso at 4 percent.
Former Biden Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, and former state Controller Betty Yee each drew 3 percent or less — a sign that even prominent names on the left are struggling to gain traction.
The share of undecided voters, while still high, has dropped significantly — from 54 percent in April to 38 percent now — suggesting that Californians are beginning to lock in their preferences earlier than usual.
Given California’s political history, some analysts are quick to predict another Democrat-vs.-Democrat showdown in November. Yet the numbers show Hilton’s candidacy could turn the race into a more traditional, competitive contest.
For Republicans, the stakes are high: the party has not won the governor’s mansion since 2006, when Arnold Schwarzenegger secured reelection. While Democrats have dominated presidential politics in the state since 1992, Donald Trump made modest inroads in California in November, proving there are pockets of conservative energy that could be mobilized statewide.
Harris’s decision to sit out the race has also fueled speculation about her national ambitions, with some in Democratic circles wondering whether she is keeping her powder dry for a possible 2028 presidential run. Newsom, too, whose term ends next year, remains a name floated in the same conversation.
The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted August 4–5 among 1,000 active registered voters in California. It has a credibility interval — akin to a margin of error — of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
For now, Porter holds the lead, but Hilton’s early momentum hints that the nation’s most populous state might not be the Democrats’ uncontested stronghold come next November.
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