The race for Virginia governor is reportedly showing signs of tightening, with a new Roanoke College poll finding that former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) holds a narrowing lead over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R).
Spanberger leads Earle-Sears 46 percent to 39 percent among likely voters, according to the survey released Tuesday. Fourteen percent of respondents said they remained undecided, while 1 percent said they would support another candidate.
The results suggest movement in the contest since May, when the same poll showed Spanberger with a far wider advantage — 43 percent to 26 percent.
The latest polling average from Decision Desk HQ, released earlier this month, similarly pointed to a closer race, with Spanberger ahead 45.2 percent to 36 percent.
Notably, the poll showed that most Virginians are already firmly locked into their choices. Seventy-six percent of likely voters said they were “very certain” of their candidate for governor, while another 21 percent described themselves as “somewhat certain.”
Virginia Republicans have expressed concern about their position heading into the fall campaign. Earle-Sears, despite being the sitting lieutenant governor, has lagged behind Spanberger in both polling and fundraising.
GOP officials have privately acknowledged that closing that gap will require not only energizing the party’s base but also winning over undecided moderates who could determine the outcome in a state that has leaned Democratic in recent years.
Still, Republicans argue that the latest numbers show their candidate is on an upward trajectory. Spanberger’s lead has shrunk since spring, and with 14 percent of voters undecided, the race remains fluid.
For Earle-Sears, who made history as the first Black woman elected statewide in Virginia, the challenge now is to translate her statewide profile into a viable path to the governor’s mansion.
The Roanoke College poll also highlighted the competitiveness of Virginia’s other statewide races. In the lieutenant governor contest, Democratic state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi holds a narrow lead over Republican John Reid, 38 percent to 35 percent.
Meanwhile, in the attorney general race, former Democratic delegate Jay Jones leads incumbent Jason Miyares, a Republican, 41 percent to 38 percent.
These figures underscore the broader dynamics at play in Virginia’s off-year elections, where Democrats remain favored but Republicans continue to show resilience.
Earle-Sears’s candidacy has been central to GOP hopes of breaking through in a state where Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin won just three years ago by appealing to suburban voters.
The poll surveyed 702 Virginia residents from Aug. 11 to 15. The margin of error among all respondents was 4.3 percent, while the margin for likely voters was 4.39 percent.
For Spanberger, a former CIA officer who positioned herself as a centrist during her time in Congress, the challenge will be maintaining her advantage in suburban areas that have trended Democratic.
For Earle-Sears, the goal is to build on her reputation as a strong conservative voice and persuade undecided Virginians that a Republican governor can once again lead the state effectively.
[READ MORE: Illegal Immigrant With California Driver’s License Kills Three in Florida Turnpike Crash]
