A new Emerson College Polling survey released Thursday shows the Ohio governor’s race tightening considerably, with Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy virtually tied as the 2026 cycle begins to take shape. Acton holds 46 percent support to Ramaswamy’s 45 percent, with 9 percent still undecided — well within the poll’s 3.3-point margin of error, indicating a true toss-up.
The numbers represent a significant shift since August. Acton, the former Ohio Department of Health director, has climbed seven points, while Ramaswamy — who ran an aggressive but ultimately unsuccessful campaign for the GOP presidential nomination last cycle — has slipped four points. The movement highlights early volatility in a state that has leaned increasingly Republican in recent years but still shows signs of competitive crosscurrents.
A major driver of the shift appears to be women voters. Emerson’s executive director Spencer Kimball noted that in August, women were nearly split between Ramaswamy and Acton. Now, Acton leads among women by 19 points, 56 to 37. Men continue to support Ramaswamy by roughly 20 points, almost unchanged from earlier polling. The widening gender gap underscores the challenge for Ramaswamy: while he maintains firm backing among male voters, he has lost significant ground among women in a state where suburban communities carry substantial political weight.
The poll also measured Ohio’s Senate race, finding a similarly competitive landscape. Republican Sen. Jon Husted leads former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown 49 percent to 46 percent, with 5 percent undecided. Brown has gained two points since August, while Husted has dipped slightly by one point. Once again, the numbers show Democrats clawing back some support after a difficult 2024 cycle, even as Republicans maintain a structural advantage.
Voters continue to signal deep concern about economic conditions. The poll found that 44 percent of Ohioans rank the economy as their top issue, dwarfing all others. “Threats to democracy” ranked second at 13 percent, followed by health care at 11 percent, housing affordability at 9 percent, and immigration at 8 percent. The intensity of economic anxieties may prove pivotal as Ramaswamy and Republicans work to frame Ohio’s future around growth, affordability, and restoring financial stability.
The survey also found interesting generational dynamics. Ohioans under 30 — most of whom did not vote in the 2024 election — are more likely to identify as Republicans than Democrats (38 percent to 31 percent), yet they still vote Democratic by roughly 12 points. Voters in their 30s lean even more Democratic. These patterns suggest a complex realignment underway in Ohio: younger adults may be shifting right culturally or ideologically, even as their voting habits remain left-leaning.
The poll, conducted December 6–8 among 850 registered voters, paints a picture of an Ohio electorate that is unsettled, economically strained, and increasingly divided along gender and generational lines. With the governor’s race essentially tied and the Senate race close behind it, both parties face steep battles ahead as the state once again emerges as a key battleground.
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