A new survey from the Yale Youth Poll indicates that California Governor Gavin Newsom is now reportedly emerging as the early frontrunner for the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nomination — even though no Democrat has officially entered the race. The poll, led by Yale undergraduates, surveyed 3,426 registered voters nationwide, including an unusually large oversample of 1,706 voters aged 18 to 34.
Among hypothetical Democratic contenders, Newsom leads the primary field with 25%, followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris at 18%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York at 16%, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 14%. Despite persistent denials that he’s eyeing a presidential run, Newsom is clearly the candidate Democratic voters appear most prepared to rally behind.
When asked who they believed would be most electable in a general election, Democratic voters again chose Newsom overwhelmingly. A full 85% rated him the party’s strongest option to defeat a generic Republican nominee — a sign that the Democratic base sees him as their most viable standard-bearer heading into the post-Biden era.
On the Republican side, the poll shows Vice President JD Vance dominating a theoretical 2028 GOP primary field in which Donald Trump is not a candidate, earning 51% of Republican support. Vance’s commanding lead underscores his rising influence within the party as Trump’s closest political ally and successor-apparent.
But when pollsters tested an unconstitutional hypothetical scenario in which Trump sought a third term, his grip on the GOP became even more apparent. In that scenario, 50% of Republican voters still backed Trump, while support for Vance fell dramatically to 19% — a clear sign of the former president’s unmatched influence inside the party. Notably, however, Trump failed to secure majority support among Republicans under 30, revealing generational tension within the GOP coalition.
The poll also highlights Trump’s ongoing struggles with younger voters overall. Voters aged 18 to 34 now disapprove of his job performance by margins of 30 points or more, a significant shift from the modest improvement he saw among young adults in spring 2025. In congressional preferences, Democrats hold comfortable double-digit advantages with every age group under 35.
While the data underscores the challenge Trump faces with younger Americans — a demographic Democrats have relied on for years — it also illustrates the lopsided ideological bent of students and young professionals typically reflected in university-led polling.
Still, the numbers suggest that Republicans will need to refine their messaging for younger voters in 2028, especially as Democrats begin coalescing early around a polished and media-savvy figure like Newsom. For now, both parties appear anchored to familiar leaders: Trump remains the center of the GOP universe, and Newsom — whether he admits it or not — is increasingly viewed as the Democrats’ next national torchbearer.
With the 2028 election cycle still years away, early polling like this provides only a snapshot. But the trends are clear: Democrats see Newsom as their strongest post-Biden contender, and young voters remain a significant obstacle for Trump and the GOP.
