With less than a week until New Jersey voters head to the polls, the race for governor has now reportedly narrowed to a virtual tie, setting up one of the most competitive statewide contests in recent memory.
A new Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey released Thursday shows Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat, holding a razor-thin edge over former Republican Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli — 49 percent to 48 percent among likely voters — a statistical tie given the survey’s three-point margin of error. Two percent remain undecided. When those undecided voters are asked which way they lean, Sherrill inches up to 50 percent, while Ciattarelli holds at 48 percent.
The tight race underscores growing volatility in a state long considered safely Democratic. New Jersey hasn’t elected back-to-back governors from the same party since 1961, a trend Sherrill is hoping to break as she seeks to succeed outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy, whose approval ratings have sagged. Ciattarelli, meanwhile, is trying to harness voter frustration over the economy and distancing himself from national party baggage.
Both candidates are navigating political headwinds. Sherrill faces the challenge of defending her party’s hold on a state where President Trump’s approval rating—though low—still surpasses Murphy’s.
The survey found Trump’s approval at 45 percent, with 53 percent disapproving. Murphy fares worse: only 34 percent of respondents approve of his performance, while 50 percent disapprove.
Economic concerns dominate voter priorities. A majority—52 percent—say the economy is the most important issue, while just 14 percent cite “threats to democracy” and 11 percent point to housing affordability.
The emphasis on pocketbook issues may offer an opening for Ciattarelli, who has built his campaign around lowering taxes and making the state more affordable for middle-class families.
Sherrill, a former Navy pilot and federal prosecutor, has campaigned as a steady hand committed to protecting abortion rights and maintaining public investments. Ciattarelli, who narrowly lost to Murphy by just three points in 2021, has focused on cutting spending and limiting what he calls “ideological overreach” in education and public health.
Despite Sherrill’s slight edge overall, the new data reveals softening support among key Democratic constituencies. Her margins among Black and Hispanic voters have declined since September. Sherrill now leads Ciattarelli by just over 50 points among Black voters—down from a 57-point advantage last month—and by 15 points among Hispanic and Latino voters, a six-point drop.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted a pronounced gender divide heading into Election Day. “Men break for Ciattarelli by 16 points, while women break for Sherrill by 18 points,” Kimball said. “Since last month, Ciattarelli’s lead among men increased by four points, and Sherrill’s lead among women grew by eight points.”
The poll, conducted October 25–28 among 1,000 likely or early voters, carries a margin of error of three percentage points.
For Republicans, the dead heat signals opportunity in a state Democrats have long dominated. For Democrats, it’s a warning shot—a reminder that even in deep-blue New Jersey, voters appear restless, and the politics of affordability may matter more than party loyalty.
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