Fox News contributor Karl Rove is cautioning Republicans that the upcoming 2026 Senate race in Texas could become unexpectedly competitive if the GOP nominates Attorney General Ken Paxton instead of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
During a Thursday discussion on Fox News, Rove said Democrat James Talarico could potentially mount a serious challenge in the traditionally Republican state under the right circumstances.
Talarico secured the Democratic nomination earlier this week after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) in Tuesday’s primary. On the Republican side, Paxton is heading into a runoff against Cornyn, setting up a high-stakes contest for the GOP nomination.
Rove, who acknowledged he has a long-standing personal friendship with Cornyn, pointed to the senator’s strong showing in the primary before being asked by Fox News anchor Dana Perino whether Democrats could realistically compete for the seat.
“Well, if Cornyn is the nominee, no,” Rove said plainly. “But if it’s Paxton with all the baggage that he’s got, the Democrats—look, George Soros is spending millions of dollars a year in building the infrastructure for the Democratic Party.”
Rove suggested that Democrats were strategic in backing Talarico as their nominee, arguing that some within the party believed he had a better chance of competing statewide.
“Democrats, a lot of thoughtful Democrats said, ‘We gotta have Talarico as the candidate because, you know, Crockett had no chance whatsoever,’” Rove explained.
According to Rove, Talarico’s past electoral success in a competitive district demonstrates his ability to attract support beyond the Democratic base.
“And Talarico has a history of having appeal to Republicans,” Rove said.
He pointed to Talarico’s earlier victory in a Texas state House race, where the Democrat defeated a Republican incumbent in a suburban district that included both Travis County and neighboring Williamson County.
“He ran for the state house against an incumbent Republican in a suburban district that covered both Travis County and Williamson County, the Republican county to the north, and won, beating an incumbent Republican,” Rove noted.
Rove went on to explain that after Talarico’s victory, the district was redrawn during the redistricting process.
“Now what happened is they then redistricted and he moved to a nearby district that was a lot more Democrat inside Travis County, Austin, Texas, and got re-elected from safer territory,” Rove said.
Still, Rove emphasized that the race would likely remain firmly in Republican hands if Cornyn ultimately secures the nomination.
“But yeah, no, look, this is—Cornyn would win this going away,” he said.
Rove added that this view is shared by some within Republican political circles.
“This is one of the arguments that even the White House political staff has been making,” he said.
However, he warned that Paxton’s political controversies could give Democrats a rare opening in a state where they have struggled for decades to win statewide races.
“Paxton on the other hand has so much baggage that the Democrats would pour a hundred or two hundred million dollars into the state with the hope that they can pull off something like they did in Alabama when they beat a very troubled Republican candidate and had, briefly, a Democrat senator from the state of Alabama,” Rove said.
Texas has been a difficult battleground for Democrats. Rove noted that Democrats have not won a Senate race in the state since 1988 and have not captured any statewide office since 1994.
Despite those long odds, Rove warned that some observers believe a weakened Republican nominee could create an unexpected opportunity.
“But everybody believes that this year is the year that if we had a damaged candidate on our ticket that they might be able to pull it off,” he said.
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