Veteran Republican strategist Karl Rove delivered a blunt warning to his own party over the weekend, cautioning that Republicans are at serious risk of losing control of the U.S. Senate in the upcoming midterm elections if they grow complacent or fail to sharpen their message.
Rove made the remarks during an appearance on Fox News’ Journal Editorial Report, responding to a question from host Paul Gigot, who noted growing anxiety among GOP senators about the electoral map.
“I’m beginning to hear, Karl, that there’s real concern among senators that the Republicans are now going to have to fight much harder than they thought to retain control of the Senate in November,” Gigot said. While acknowledging the usual midterm challenges facing the party in power in the House, Gigot asked just how vulnerable Republicans might be in the Senate.
Rove responded candidly, saying the fight for the upper chamber could come down to the wire.
“Well, it could be close,” Rove said, before pointing to several states he described as critical and potentially problematic for Republicans.
He started with Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins is seeking reelection. Rove noted that Collins previously won her last race by nine points even as President Donald Trump lost the state by nine points, an outcome he described as highly unusual. That result, Rove said, showed just how unique Collins’ coalition was and why her reelection fight will be difficult.
“That’s really unusual,” Rove said, adding that it underscores how tough the race could be.
Rove then turned to North Carolina, calling it another challenging battleground. With Sen. Thom Tillis retiring, Republicans are fielding Michael Whatley, whom Rove described as a “nice guy.” Democrats, however, are running a former two-term governor who also previously served as state attorney general, making the contest far from easy.
Rove also highlighted opportunities and risks elsewhere on the map. He said Republicans need to try to knock off Georgia, see an opening in Michigan, and now face a tougher-than-expected challenge in Alaska, where Democrats have identified what he described as the only candidate who might have a legitimate shot.
Texas, long considered safe territory for Republicans, also drew pointed commentary from Rove. He said the outcome there could hinge entirely on the GOP nominee. If incumbent Sen. John Cornyn emerges as the nominee, Rove argued Republicans would likely have an easy race. But if Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton secures the nomination, Rove warned the contest could become chaotic.
“If they have a guy who’s got all kinds of problems, including three girlfriends, Ken Paxton, the attorney general, it could be a real mess,” Rove said.
Rove concluded that Republicans cannot afford to assume Senate control is secure. He stressed that economic messaging must not come solely from the White House and that Republican candidates themselves need a disciplined, coordinated strategy.
“They have to have the right messaging and the right attitude,” Rove said.
Adding to the concern, a recent University of Houston survey shows Paxton currently leading Cornyn by seven points in the Texas Republican primary, underscoring the internal challenges the GOP faces even before the general election fight begins.
