Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, holds a narrow lead over Democrat Josh Turek in the race for Iowa’s open Senate seat, while Democratic state auditor Rob Sand has the edge over Republican Zach Lahn in the governor’s race, according to a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey.
Hinson drew 47% support to Turek’s 45%, a lead that falls within the poll’s margin of error. Libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn received 2%, and 7% of voters were undecided.
In the gubernatorial contest, Sand pulled 49% support compared to Lahn’s 45%, with 6% undecided.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said the results revealed a split by age.
“Voters over 50 differ in intensity of support on the Senate and gubernatorial ballot: they break for Hinson over Turek for Senate by 13, but Lahn only by five points on the ballot,” Kimball said.
Voters under 50, meanwhile, were more consistent in their support for the Democrats, according to Kimball.
“They break for Turek on the Senate ballot by 14, and similarly Sand by 15,” he said.
The economy remains the dominant concern for Iowa voters. The survey found 42% of respondents named it their top issue, up 4 points from August. Healthcare followed at 18%, with threats to democracy at 10% and education at 8%.
“Voters who say the economy is the top issue facing the state break for Hinson by four points, 47-43%, but for Rob Sand by three points, 49-46%,” Kimball said. “Voters who find healthcare or threats to democracy to be the top issue facing the state break for the Democratic candidates by double digits.”
Iowa has been a reliably red state over the past decade, with President Trump carrying it in all three of his presidential runs. But Republicans face a rocky midterm environment as the president’s approval rating continues to slide and dissatisfaction grows nationwide over the ongoing conflict with Iran.
Among likely voters in the Hawkeye State, 42% approved of the president’s job performance, while 51% disapproved.
The Cook Political Report has described Iowa as “ground zero for backlash to the effect of Trump’s tariffs and Iran War on the agriculture industry.”
Hinson has taken steps to distance herself from the president by centering her campaign on the economic toll of the Iran war. Notably, she opposed Trump’s plan to import beef as a way to lower prices for Americans.
While Hinson has voted against resolutions that would limit actions in Iran, she has called for an “immediate end” to the conflict.
“Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran,” Hinson wrote on social media.
The results suggest a competitive landscape in a state that has leaned firmly Republican in recent years, with the GOP holding a slim advantage in the Senate race but trailing in the fight for the governor’s mansion.
The poll was conducted Oct. 5-6 among 650 likely Iowa voters and has a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.
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