CNN Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten argued Wednesday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be facing one of the most difficult political challenges of his long career, pointing to recent polling and prediction market data that suggest his hold on power could be weakening ahead of Israel’s next election.
During a segment analyzing the latest numbers, Enten noted that Netanyahu has repeatedly survived political crises throughout his decades in public life. Still, he suggested that current trends indicate the veteran leader may be confronting a more serious threat to his political future than many of the battles he has weathered in the past.
“Bibi Netanyahu has pulled rabbits out of hats before, but his luck might have finally run out,” Enten said.
According to Enten, prediction markets have become increasingly pessimistic about Netanyahu’s chances of remaining prime minister after Israel’s 2026 election.
He highlighted data from Kalshi showing Netanyahu with a 33% chance of retaining the premiership following the election. Enten contrasted that figure with numbers from roughly 50 days earlier, when the market estimated Netanyahu’s chances at 51%.
The decline, Enten said, reflects growing uncertainty about Netanyahu’s political standing.
“Netanyahu’s chances have been going down, down, down into the Red Sea,” he remarked.
A major factor influencing Netanyahu’s political prospects, according to Enten, is the ongoing conflict involving Iran and how Israeli voters ultimately judge its outcome. As with many wartime leaders, public opinion appears closely tied to questions of national security, military strategy, and whether the conflict achieves its stated objectives.
Enten pointed to polling data indicating that a majority of Israelis do not currently believe ending the war immediately would serve the country’s security interests.
According to the survey he cited, 58% of Israelis said it would not be beneficial for the war to end at this point, while only 34% believed a near-term conclusion would be advantageous for Israel.
Those numbers suggest a political reality that differs significantly from the one facing President Donald Trump in the United States. Enten argued that while bringing the conflict to a close quickly might offer political benefits for Trump, Netanyahu appears to be operating under a different set of incentives driven by Israeli public opinion.
The analysis highlights the often-complicated relationship between wartime leadership and domestic politics. Military conflicts can reshape public sentiment rapidly, creating political risks for leaders regardless of whether they pursue escalation or seek an end to hostilities.
Enten also identified another challenge facing Netanyahu: growing support among Israelis for imposing term limits on the office of prime minister.
The analyst noted that Netanyahu has been a dominant figure in Israeli politics for decades, serving more than 18 years as prime minister since first being elected in 1996. Enten observed that Netanyahu’s time in office has stretched across multiple generations of Israeli voters.
According to the data he cited, 61% of Israelis now support implementing a two-term limit for prime ministers after Netanyahu eventually leaves office.
Enten described that figure as a significant sign of public sentiment and suggested it could reflect broader concerns about long-term political leadership.
The discussion comes just days after President Trump publicly emphasized his own influence over negotiations involving Iran. Speaking to the Financial Times, Trump said Netanyahu would ultimately have to accept any agreement he reaches with Tehran.
“I call the shots. I call all the shots,” Trump said.
“[Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots.”
Together, the polling, prediction market data, and public debate over the war underscore the mounting political pressures surrounding one of the world’s longest-serving leaders as Israel moves toward its next election.
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