Canada’s Conservative Party has reportedly significantly narrowed the gap with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party ahead of the national election, now just 3.6 percentage points behind.
A recent CTV News-Globe and Mail-Nanos poll shows the Liberals at 42.9% and the Conservatives at 39.3%, down from a 5.6-point deficit just a day earlier.
The shift in momentum favors Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, whose campaign has focused on pressing domestic issues like rising costs and public safety.
In Halifax, Poilievre stated, “We can’t afford a fourth Liberal term of rising costs and crime,” promising to repeal electric vehicle sales mandates as part of his economic agenda.
While Poilievre emphasizes local concerns, Carney has centered his campaign on U.S.-Canada relations and perceived threats from former President Trump.
However, political analyst Paul Thomas notes that the diminishing urgency regarding U.S. relations may be shifting voter priorities back to everyday economic issues. Poilievre’s softer campaign tone could also be attracting additional support.
The Conservative surge follows the release of an extensive party platform and recent debates, which have resonated with voters frustrated by policies like the federal carbon tax and increased immigration targets—measures opposition parties argue have exacerbated the cost-of-living crisis.
Despite potential popular support, the Liberals may end up with a minority government, reliant on smaller parties to govern.
The New Democratic Party, currently polling at 7.2%, could play a crucial role in a tightly contested parliament.
As election day approaches, both parties are ramping up efforts to mobilize voters in key battlegrounds, particularly in suburban areas around Toronto and Vancouver, where outcomes are often decided.
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