Fox News alum Bill O’Reilly is delivering a blunt warning to Republicans: Texas may not be the safe red-state bet the party is counting on this November.
O’Reilly wrote on his website Monday that the GOP has a “major problem” in the Lone Star State, pointing to a string of polls showing Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico with a lead over President Donald Trump’s handpicked choice, state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The commentator noted it’s a troubling sign that Talarico is out front despite Trump’s personal endorsement of Paxton — an endorsement that has otherwise proven to be gold for Republican candidates this cycle. According to Ballotpedia, Trump-backed candidates have won a staggering 96 percent of their primaries so far this year, and Paxton was among the 315 Trump-endorsed hopefuls who cruised through their primary, defeating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn earlier this year.
Still, O’Reilly wasn’t entirely doom and gloom for conservatives, offering a silver lining by suggesting Republicans are catching a break simply because, in his view, Talarico is “a nut.”
But his broader message carried a cynical note about the state of American politics heading into the midterms. O’Reilly argued that it barely matters who voters actually elect anymore, because party leadership — not individual candidates — calls the shots once someone is in office. He said that dynamic cuts both ways, blasting Democrats for enforcing ideological conformity on issues like gender while suggesting Republicans play the very same game.
O’Reilly’s warning comes as a wave of recent polling shows Talarico with a real edge over Paxton heading into the fall, including surveys showing him performing strongly even in districts Trump carried by double digits in the last election.
Trump himself has been increasingly vocal about his fears over Texas, warning supporters earlier this month that if the state flips blue, he would be “the last Republican president” and that the country would “live in hell.”
The president’s team isn’t leaving it to chance. The pro-Trump MAGA Inc. super PAC recently dumped $10 million into ads supporting Paxton in the tightening race. Trump has also been an unusual mix of supportive and critical of his own endorsed candidate, repeatedly ribbing Paxton publicly over his fashion choices even while insisting he remains the better option for Texas voters.
With Election Day approaching and the polls tightening, Republicans are bracing for what could be one of the most consequential Senate battles of the entire midterm cycle — in a state the GOP simply cannot afford to lose.
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