Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers is projecting confidence heading into Election Day, claiming his campaign holds a lead among early ballots returned, despite public polls showing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead.
Speaking on Fox News on Friday, Rogers said his internal numbers show him running well ahead of where the polls suggest.
“We’re actually about 7 percent ahead on voters that we believe are voting for us returning their ballots,” Rogers said, specifying the figures were “by our models.”
Rogers’ claim stands in contrast to recent public surveys. A CNN poll released Thursday found 49 percent of respondents backing or leaning toward El-Sayed, compared with 42 percent for Rogers. A New York Times/Siena poll showed El-Sayed leading 53 percent to 42 percent among likely voters. Decision Desk HQ has given El-Sayed roughly a 74 percent chance of winning.
But Republicans see reasons for optimism. Polls have overestimated El-Sayed before: ahead of the August Democratic primary, several surveys showed him with a double-digit lead over Rep. Haley Stevens, yet he won by less than a percentage point. Rogers himself came within about 20,000 votes of defeating now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024.
Rogers got another boost Sunday when Stevens, the Democrat El-Sayed narrowly defeated in the primary, stunned her party by endorsing him. The two appeared together at Perfecting Church in Detroit before Stevens made the announcement. Rogers said he was honored by her support and called it an act of courage.
Stevens’ endorsement followed a bitter, days-long feud with El-Sayed, who disinvited her from a Sunday campaign event after she criticized him on social media. Stevens insisted she was not turning her back on Democrats and said nearly all of her other votes would go to members of her party.
President Trump praised Stevens’ move on social media. Democratic leaders condemned it, and El-Sayed’s campaign said it raised $1.2 million in the hours that followed.
The two candidates have clashed sharply throughout the race. In an October debate, Rogers hit El-Sayed over funding from supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, among others, while El-Sayed accused Rogers of taking money from pharmaceutical companies.
The seat is open following the retirement of Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. Michigan is one of two Democratic-held Senate seats in a state Trump won in 2024, making it a top Republican target. A GOP victory would be historic: Republicans have not won a Senate race in Michigan since 1994.
Rogers, a former congressman who chaired the House Intelligence Committee, has Trump’s “complete and total endorsement” and has pitched himself as a candidate who can deliver results for working families.
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