Democrats are ahead in two key Senate races in the final days of the midterm campaign, according to new CNN polling, a warning sign for Republicans working to defend their 53-47 Senate majority.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 49% to 43% among likely voters. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers 49% to 42%.
The same polling found no clear leader in two other closely watched contests. In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins trails Democratic challenger Troy Jackson 45% to 49%, a margin within the poll’s error. In Kansas, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall trails Democrat Adam Hamilton 45% to 49%, also within the margin of error.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate. Three of the four seats covered by the polls are currently held by Republicans.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in three decades, and President Trump carried the state in 2024 by his widest margin in any of his three presidential runs. According to the poll, Talarico is drawing 63% of Latino likely voters and 22% of voters of color who say they backed Trump in 2024. Paxton is viewed unfavorably by 24% of Republicans, while just 2% of Democrats view Talarico negatively.
Still, there are signs the race could tighten. The poll found the Republican Party remains more popular in Texas than the Democratic Party. In both Texas and Kansas, at least six in 10 of the voters who say they could still change their minds are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, suggesting room for GOP candidates to gain ground as undecided voters settle on their choices.
In Michigan, El-Sayed has consolidated Democratic support after a contentious August primary, now drawing 95% of Democratic likely voters. Rogers’ unfavorable rating has risen to 50%, up from 42% in early September.
In Maine, Collins continues to draw crossover support. She picks up 21% of voters who disapprove of Trump, more than any other Republican candidate tested, including Rogers at 16%, Marshall at 12% and Paxton at 10%. Motivation among Collins supporters has grown by 9 points since early September.
Other surveys have shown tighter margins. RealClearPolling’s average in Texas shows Talarico at 48.5% and Paxton at 46.7%, while its Michigan average shows El-Sayed at 48% and Rogers at 46%.
The CNN polls were conducted online and by telephone Oct. 20 to 27 in Michigan and Texas and Oct. 20 to 26 in Kansas and Maine. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.7 percentage points in Michigan, 4.2 points in Texas and 4.5 points in both Kansas and Maine.
Republicans won back control of the Senate in 2024, flipping seats in West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana. Control of Congress will be decided on Tuesday.
