Former Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel is sounding the alarm for her party, predicting Democrats are likely to seize control of the House next week and questioning why Republicans are spending so heavily to save Ken Paxton in Texas.
Appearing Tuesday on CBS News’ “The Takeout” with Major Garrett, McDaniel said the political landscape has shifted against the GOP heading into the Nov. 3 midterms.
“I think the House, you know, with three seats that the Dems need to pick up, is probably gonna go to the Democrats,” McDaniel said. She added that all eyes are now on the Senate, where the map has expanded and Democrats are feeling confident.
McDaniel, who led the RNC during the 2018 midterms when Republicans lost control of the House, noted the party has far more money at its disposal this cycle. But she argued much of it is being spent in places Republicans should not have to defend.
She took particular aim at the Texas Senate race, where Paxton, the state’s attorney general, is in a tight contest with Democrat James Talarico.
McDaniel said Republicans shouldn’t be spending $200 million or $300 million in Texas to defend a Senate candidate.
Outside groups have poured $239 million into backing Paxton, according to Reuters. Billionaire Elon Musk has been a major force behind that effort, giving the Senate Leadership Fund $75 million on Sept. 9 and another $83 million on Sept. 23, with the super PAC transferring identical sums to a Texas PAC backing Paxton the following day, according to CNBC.
McDaniel also pointed to President Donald Trump’s travel schedule as a telling sign of where the battlefield stands. She said the president would not be visiting certain states unless internal data showed a need to spend time there.
Trump has campaigned for Paxton even while poking fun at him on the trail, mocking the way he dresses. The president has also taken aim at Talarico, deriding him with the nickname “Talafreako.” Talarico brushed off the attacks at a rally in Lubbock.
On the Senate, McDaniel struck a more hopeful tone, saying she believes Republicans can hold their majority, though she acknowledged the party faces a tough environment.
Forecasters largely share her outlook on the House. Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats about an 80% chance of retaking the lower chamber and roughly a 57% chance of flipping the Senate.
Republicans have also struggled with small-dollar fundraising. Talarico has raised $75.3 million in donations under $200, compared with $5.37 million for Paxton, according to a VoteHub analysis.
McDaniel stepped down as RNC chair in 2024. Her comments add to a chorus of Republican voices warning that rising gas prices, cost-of-living frustrations and the president’s approval ratings are weighing on GOP candidates in the final days of the campaign.
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