CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten delivered a blunt assessment of Vice President JD Vance’s popularity, arguing the vice president is “not even helpful” to fellow Republicans in his home state of Ohio.
CNN anchor John Berman opened the segment by noting that Vance has been hitting the campaign trail despite headwinds from high oil and gas prices. Berman said the vice president has blamed those prices on former President Joe Biden rather than the war in Iran.
VANCE PRESSED AT CBS TOWN HALL
Berman then played a clip from a CBS News town hall over the weekend, where Vance faced tough questions from CBS Evening News anchor Tony Dokoupil.
Dokoupil told Vance that “it’s almost been two years” since Trump’s second term began.
“At a certain point, it becomes your economy, not Joe Biden’s economy,” Dokoupil said. “Also back in March, right here in Michigan, you said it was just a temporary blip in gas prices. How long is temporary?”
“Well, look, um, I don’t think that — when, when this conflict is over, we are going to see gas prices come down,” Vance responded.
Berman argued that the Iran war marked the start of rising gas prices before bringing in Enten to assess how Vance was doing as he puts his political capital on the line in the midterms.
ENTEN: “AIN’T NOBODY’S BUYING” IT
“I would just say, ain’t nobody’s buying that line of reasoning,” Enten said of Vance’s effort to blame Biden for gas prices.
Enten then pointed to Vance’s net favorability ratings. He said Vance started his vice presidency three points above water but has since fallen to 15 points underwater, an 18-point shift in the wrong direction.
The numbers were even worse among independents, according to Enten.
“His net favorability among independents has gone from about zero — which ain’t too great, but ain’t too awful — to now about minus-30 points with independents,” he said.
“Going the wrong way, the vice president of the United States is,” Enten added, channeling Yoda.
HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Asked how the numbers stack up historically, Enten said Vance has the lowest net favorability of any Republican vice president at this point in their term.
He compared Vance to Mike Pence at plus-1, Dick Cheney at plus-41, Dan Quayle at minus-4, the previous low, and George H.W. Bush at plus-10.
“So J.D. Vance, by far the least popular Republican vice president at this point in a vice presidency,” Enten said.
UNDERWATER IN OHIO
Berman suggested Vance must be faring well in Ohio. Enten said he is not.
“He’s deep under the Ohio River,” Enten quipped.
According to Enten, Vance was at plus-five in Ohio when he was elected in November 2024 but has since dropped to minus-seven, a 12-point swing. Among Ohio independents, Enten said Vance sits at minus-38.
“He simply put, is not helpful nationally, and he’s not even helpful in his own home state,” Enten said.
2028 ODDS FALLING
Enten also said prediction markets have cooled on Vance’s 2028 chances, with his odds of winning the presidency falling from 33% a year ago to 22% now.
“So JD Vance, as he’s become less popular nationwide, his chances of becoming the next president have also fallen as well,” Enten concluded.
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