Republicans are facing yet another grim midterm forecast, this time from CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten, who warned Monday that the GOP is in serious trouble heading into November, particularly when it comes to holding on to the House.
Pointing to the polling he has been reviewing, Enten did not mince words about what lies ahead for the party.
“It’s going to be f’ing rough, because the levee has been breached, the blue wave is coming over the wall, Speaker [Mike] Johnson and President [Donald] Trump,” Enten warned.
According to Enten, the GOP’s biggest problem is President Trump himself. He said the president holds a -16 net approval rating in what he called “key House districts,” though CNN did not define which districts fall into that category.
Enten noted that figure is twice as bad as the president’s standing in 2018, when Trump had a -8 net approval rating and Democrats won back control of the House.
“Simply put, mathematically, this equals a Democratic majority for the House of Representatives,” Enten said of the president’s approval rating.
The CNN analyst also flagged trouble for Trump on the economy. In key districts, he said, only 37% of voters approve of the job the president is doing on that front.
Enten’s warning came just one day after Cook Political Report founder Charlie Cook painted a similarly bleak picture for Republicans.
Appearing on ABC’s This Week, Cook argued that Democrats find themselves in a strong position not because of their own agenda, but because voters are frustrated with the president.
“It isn’t pro-Democrat,” Cook said. “It’s anti-Trump, basically, and Republicans that have been supportive of the president.”
Cook’s assessment lined up with comments Enten made a few days earlier, when the CNN analyst reported that Democratic voters “despise” their own party’s leaders, including Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.
Despite that dissatisfaction within Democratic ranks, Cook said he believes it is a “done deal” that Democrats will take the House. He added that the party also has a fairly good shot at winning the Senate.
Enten stopped just short of going that far on Monday, but his projection for the House was striking. He forecast that Democrats will pick up 22 seats, leaving them with 236 members in the chamber after the elections.
“At this point, it looks like Democrats are going to have a very merry November indeed, at least when it comes to the House of Representatives,” Enten said.
The back-to-back warnings from Enten and Cook add to a growing list of gloomy predictions for the GOP as the midterms approach. Both analysts pointed to the president’s standing with voters as the central factor, with Enten citing weak approval numbers in key districts and on the economy, and Cook describing the political environment as driven by opposition to Trump and the Republicans who have backed him.
For Speaker Johnson and congressional Republicans, the numbers laid out by Enten suggest a steep climb ahead as they fight to keep their House majority in November.
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