Decision Desk HQ moved Florida’s gubernatorial race into the “Toss Up” column on Wednesday, though Republican nominee Rep. Byron Donalds remains narrowly favored to win the seat.
The ratings change follows weeks of slipping numbers for Donalds against his Democratic opponent, former Rep. David Jolly, who previously served in Congress as a Republican.
Donalds cruised through the Republican primary with the backing of President Donald Trump’s endorsement. However, the Florida congressman has so far been unable to build the kind of commanding lead other Florida Republicans have enjoyed in recent statewide contests. Recent polling shows the race in a statistical tie.
Donalds still holds a significant fundraising advantage over Jolly, and Republicans have dominated recent Florida elections. In 2022, Gov. Ron DeSantis won reelection by nearly 20 points, crushing Charlie Crist, a former governor and former congressman who had previously been both a Republican and an independent. But DeSantis’ margin was inflated by several factors, and the 2026 political landscape is very different from 2022.
Trump’s polling numbers have dropped significantly during his second term. This week, Donalds removed most references to the president from his campaign website, and he has recently begun giving far more prominence to his endorsement from DeSantis.
Decision Desk HQ is not alone in its assessment. Several other election forecasters have shifted their ratings of the Florida governor’s race toward Democrats, including Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections and the Cook Political Report.
The move to toss-up did not come out of nowhere. On Sept. 16, Decision Desk HQ noted that Donalds’ chances of winning had “slipped” seven points and that Jolly had been gaining ground each week. At the time, the forecaster rated the race “Leans Republican” but warned it was approaching toss-up territory.
That warning proved accurate just one week later. On Wednesday, Decision Desk HQ announced that “Florida’s gubernatorial race has shifted into the Toss UP column,” while noting Donalds is still “narrowly favored.”
Jolly’s campaign seized on the news, issuing a press release calling the ratings change “the most significant shift in the race to date.”
“Change is here and we’re going to win!” Jolly posted on X shortly after the announcement.
Mark Riddle, a senior adviser to the Jolly-Graham campaign, said in a statement that the new rating would not alter the campaign’s strategy.
“The Florida Governor’s race is officially a toss-up, but that won’t change our approach,” Riddle said. “David will continue to focus on reaching every voter to share the change agenda that got us here: housing, healthcare, education, and stopping data centers.”
Riddle added that the campaign has “built a strong coalition” and predicted that support would continue to grow as Floridians learn more about Jolly.
For Donalds, the challenge ahead is clear. Despite Trump’s early backing, a strong fundraising edge and Florida’s recent Republican track record, the congressman now finds himself in a far tighter contest than many in his party may have expected, with forecasters across the board signaling that the race for Tallahassee is up for grabs.
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