The nonpartisan election forecaster Cook Political Report moved the Senate races in Kansas and South Carolina toward Democrats on Wednesday, with just over a month to go before the November midterm elections.
In Kansas, Sen. Roger Marshall’s bid to hold his seat against Democrat Adam Hamilton shifted from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” In South Carolina, the race between Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews moved from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.”
According to Cook Political Report, agriculture is the driving force in the Kansas contest, particularly high fuel and fertilizer prices along with trade on beef. Those rising costs have made the race more competitive.
Another factor is President Trump’s announcement earlier this month that he will stop purchasing planes from Canadian aerospace company Bombardier, which operates a plant in Wichita and is a major employer in the state.
“Some private GOP polling has Marshall with more of an advantage than public polls and some private Democratic surveys that show a dead heat,” Cook editor Jessica Taylor wrote in her update.
Taylor noted that GOP sources have acknowledged “there are weak spots” for Marshall that will need shoring up in an “increasingly worrisome contest for the GOP that should be competitive at this juncture, though one where Republicans still have the edge.”
Decision Desk HQ projects Marshall has a 79 percent probability of defeating Hamilton, who has a 21 percent chance of winning the seat. However, recent polling from The Hill/Emerson College showed Hamilton with a 2-point lead over the incumbent, 45 percent to 43 percent.
In South Carolina, Taylor pointed to Graham’s uneven debate performance and warned she could “face backlash for being elevated to the job purely because of her family name.” Graham, a newly minted incumbent, replaced her brother, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, following his sudden death in July.
Rep. Ralph Norman, who challenged Darline Graham in the GOP Senate primary, did not immediately “issue a quick and full-throated endorsement after the contest,” Taylor wrote.
A conservative grassroots campaign is also urging voters to write in Norman’s name on the November ballot, “though sources close to Graham dismiss its impact as minuscule,” according to the report.
Andrews remains stuck in the mid-40s in the polls, but she could get a boost from a $2.5 million ad campaign launched by the Democratic group Fresh Start South Carolina. Taylor reported that Andrews is “running a real race” and that the outside help could turn it into “a truly competitive contest.”
“However, some in-state Republicans express enough angst about Graham’s soft numbers and fears of low turnout that it moves from Solid to Likely Republican,” Taylor added.
Decision Desk HQ also gives Graham the advantage. Its forecast shows the Republican with a 74 percent chance of keeping the seat, compared with 26 percent for Andrews.
Overall, Cook Political Report projects Democrats picking up between one and five Senate seats. Taylor noted that a “very blue environment” is forming, but it remains to be seen whether Democrats can turn that “national wave into a Senate sweep.”
Both races now bear watching as Republicans work to defend seats that, until recently, were considered safely in their column. With the clock ticking toward November, GOP strategists face mounting pressure to shore up support in two states that have long been reliable Republican strongholds.
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