CNN polling analyst Harry Enten highlighted a series of troubling numbers for Republicans on Wednesday as the party heads toward November’s midterm elections with narrow majorities in Congress.
Republicans currently control the House by seven seats and the Senate by three. The president’s party has historically lost seats during midterm elections, and Democrats are widely expected to recapture the House.
Adding to the GOP’s challenges is President Donald Trump’s approval rating, which stands at 33%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday.
Enten appeared on CNN’s “OutFront,” where host Erin Burnett pointed to Democrat Brandon Dukes’ stunning special election victory Tuesday in Pennsylvania’s 12th state House district.
Dukes flipped a district that Trump carried by 18 points during the 2024 presidential election.
“Is this an isolated incident or is this the start of something bigger?” Burnett asked.
“I think it’s something bigger,” Enten responded.
Enten noted that Dukes campaigned in part on his working-class background before turning his attention to a major shift among white working-class voters, a group that strongly supported Trump in 2024.
CNN displayed a graphic showing Trump defeated former Vice President Kamala Harris among white working-class voters by 34 points in 2024. Trump’s net approval rating among the same demographic now stands at minus four.
“He’s underwater with the white working class,” Enten said. “That’s a 38-point switcheroo since the election.”
Enten argued that the result in western Pennsylvania, along with another Democratic flip in the state earlier in the election cycle, reflects a broader shift involving a group that has formed a central part of Trump’s political support.
“What’s going on in that district, what happened in terms of another flip in Pennsylvania earlier this cycle is emblematic, in my mind, of the group that has been the core of Donald Trump’s support,” Enten said. “Adiós, amigos. Goodbye. See you later.”
The CNN analyst then turned to another statistic he said could spell trouble for Republicans: the number of seats changing party control during special elections.
Enten said Democrats have flipped 13 districts previously controlled by Republicans during special elections, while Republicans have not flipped any Democratic-held districts.
“You don’t have to be a mathematical genius to know that 13 is greater than zero,” Enten said.
He also pointed to the historical connection between special election performance and control of the House.
According to Enten, in each of the past five midterm election cycles, the party that outperformed in special elections — including state legislative and federal contests — ultimately won control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
“So, this to me is very emblematic of something that could be huge come November,” Enten concluded.
[READ MORE: Missouri Judge Blocks Referendum Challenge, Keeps GOP Congressional Map in Place]
