Election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved Florida’s Senate race further into Republican territory after democratic socialist state Rep. Angie Nixon scored an unexpected victory in Tuesday’s Democratic primary.
Nixon defeated Alex Vindman, the former director for European affairs at the National Security Council, to secure the Democratic nomination in another primary victory for the party’s progressive faction.
Following Nixon’s win, Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its rating of the Florida contest from “likely Republican” to “safely Republican.”
Nixon served three terms in the Florida House representing District 13, a predominantly Black district that includes her hometown of Jacksonville, following the COVID-19 pandemic.
She is now expected to face Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed Moody to the Senate seat left vacant by Marco Rubio, who became secretary of state.
President Donald Trump has endorsed Moody for a second term, pointing to her legal background and experience working in a U.S. attorney’s office, where she prosecuted drug, firearm and fraud offenses.
The two candidates enter the general election with a significant fundraising gap.
Moody reported having more than $8.4 million in cash on hand for the Senate contest, compared with just over $260,000 for Nixon.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, raised questions about Nixon’s ability to mount a statewide campaign given that financial disparity.
“I don’t see how she runs a viable statewide campaign — money isn’t everything but it is important,” Kondik wrote Tuesday on X.
But Nixon already demonstrated in the Democratic primary that having less campaign cash does not necessarily prevent an upset.
Vindman entered the contest with $7 million in cash on hand, giving him an enormous financial advantage over Nixon. Despite that disparity, Nixon emerged victorious and secured the Democratic nomination.
The Democratic nominee has said her Senate campaign will focus on working-class voters and improving economic conditions for the public.
“Hardworking people deserve every opportunity to reach financial freedom with a better economy that lowers costs, raises incomes, and protects the chance to achieve our own version of the American dream,” a statement on Nixon’s campaign website reads.
Her campaign also argues that many families are struggling financially despite working harder.
“Angie Nixon is running because too many families are working harder than ever and still falling behind—while corrupt billionaires and greedy corporations rig the system in their favor,” the campaign states.
Nixon’s upset victory now sets the stage for a November showdown with Moody, but the Democratic primary result has already prompted Sabato’s Crystal Ball to view the race as more favorable to Republicans.
The general election will pit Nixon’s working-class-focused campaign against an incumbent Republican backed by Trump and holding a substantial financial advantage heading into the contest.
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