Conservative commentator Ben Shapiro warned that Vice President JD Vance could face serious challenges in a 2028 general election, arguing that the Republican would struggle to outperform President Donald Trump with key groups of voters.
Shapiro discussed the potential 2028 Republican field during an appearance on “The PBD Podcast” with Patrick Bet-David this week.
The Daily Wire founder said he sees few realistic alternatives to Vance for the Republican nomination, particularly if Trump throws his support behind the vice president. Shapiro also dismissed the possibility that an outside candidate could easily break through with the MAGA base during the Republican primaries.
But while Vance could be well-positioned in a primary, Shapiro argued the general election would present a much more difficult challenge.
“The biggest thing about JD, I don’t think winning the primaries, I think he’s going to have real trouble in the general,” Shapiro said.
Shapiro pushed back on the idea that Trump scored a sweeping victory in 2024, instead describing it as narrow by historical standards. He pointed to Trump’s margins in battleground states including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while also noting his victories in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
The key question for Vance, according to Shapiro, is which voters he could attract in greater numbers than Trump.
“I do not think there is a single group that you can name in American politics in which he will overperform Trump,” Shapiro said.
Shapiro argued Secretary of State Marco Rubio could potentially outperform Trump among Hispanic voters and women. However, he expressed doubt that Rubio would enter the race, describing him as a “risk-averse” politician who might not see a clear path to either run himself or join Vance on a ticket.
Shapiro said he does not believe Vance could outperform Trump among Hispanics, women or even blue-collar voters, despite describing the latter group as Vance’s “bread and butter.”
Bet-David suggested Vance could potentially make gains among independents and Libertarians, along with public figures who have become increasingly critical of the administration over issues including the Iran war and Epstein files. He cited Joe Rogan, Theo Von and Dave Smith as examples.
Shapiro dismissed the potential impact of Libertarians and argued that winning over figures such as Von would still mean drawing support from a constituency Trump had already attracted.
He also predicted Rogan could be more likely to support the Democratic nominee than Vance, provided that nominee is not California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
“I think it is far less likely that Rogan would get behind JD than he gets behind the Democrat, as long as it’s not Newsom,” Shapiro said.
Shapiro ultimately argued Vance faces a political balancing act because of his close association with Trump.
Vance would need to maintain support from Trump’s coalition while potentially distancing himself from policies that have alienated some former supporters, Shapiro said.
“JD is both running against Trump and running with Trump,” Shapiro concluded. “That’s a politically unenviable position for him.”
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