A new survey suggests Texas could be headed for a closely watched Senate contest this fall, with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico holding a slim advantage over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a race that remains well within the margin of error.
The poll, released Tuesday by Texas Pulse, found that 47 percent of respondents would support Talarico if the election were held today, while 44 percent said they would vote for Paxton. Another 2 percent said they would back a different candidate.
Although the results place Talarico ahead by three percentage points, the survey carries a margin of error of four points, making the contest effectively a statistical dead heat.
Texas Pulse, a partnership between the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University and ReconMR, conducted the survey between June 1 and June 4 among 807 respondents.
The findings offer an early snapshot of a race that has rapidly intensified since Paxton secured the Republican nomination last month. Backed by President Donald Trump, Paxton defeated longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn in a primary runoff, ending the four-term senator’s bid for another term in Washington.
Following Cornyn’s defeat, Talarico sought to appeal to voters who had supported the veteran Republican.
“We don’t agree on everything, but we both still believe in public service,” Talarico wrote on social media. Addressing Cornyn’s supporters directly, he added, “You have a place in our campaign.”
The survey suggests that outreach may be finding some traction among voters beyond the Democratic base. While no Democrats surveyed said they would support Paxton, 9 percent of Republican respondents indicated they would vote for Talarico.
Among independent voters, the gap was even more pronounced. The poll found Talarico leading Paxton by 18 points with independents, while 4 percent of those voters said they would support neither candidate.
With fewer than five months remaining before Election Day, the campaign has already become increasingly combative.
Talarico recently criticized Paxton during a campaign appearance, accusing his opponent of failing to meet standards of personal and public accountability.
“Call me old-fashioned, but a man takes responsibility,” Talarico told supporters. “He upholds his commitments to his family and his neighbors, and he does what’s right even when no one is watching.”
He went on to accuse Paxton of dishonesty and self-enrichment, escalating the rhetoric between the two campaigns.
The attacks draw attention to controversies that have followed Paxton throughout his political career. In 2015, he was indicted on felony securities fraud charges. Years later, the Texas House voted to impeach him, though he was ultimately acquitted by the Texas Senate in 2023.
Paxton has also faced personal scrutiny. During divorce proceedings last year, his estranged wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, accused him of infidelity.
The Republican attorney general has responded by aggressively targeting Talarico’s record and political positions. Paxton has criticized his opponent’s support for transgender Americans and accused him of taking weak positions on immigration and crime.
During a recent appearance on Fox News, Paxton also questioned Talarico’s religious views despite Talarico’s background as a Presbyterian seminarian.
Financially, Talarico appears to hold a significant advantage. According to Federal Election Commission filings, his campaign reported roughly $7.5 million more cash on hand than Paxton’s at the end of March. Talarico also said his campaign raised more than $3 million in the 24 hours following Paxton’s primary victory.
Paxton, however, has moved to strengthen his fundraising operation by filing paperwork to establish a joint fundraising committee with the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The move comes despite the committee having spent millions during the primary season supporting Cornyn and opposing Paxton.
With both candidates sharpening their attacks and building financial resources, the Texas Senate race appears poised to become one of the state’s most closely watched political battles in the months ahead.
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