A new Texas poll shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico opening a clear lead over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the race for the Democratic nomination to the U.S. Senate, even as Republicans remain favored to hold the seat in a state President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024.
According to an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey released Thursday, Talarico leads Crockett by nine points among likely Democratic primary voters, 47 percent to 38 percent, with 15 percent undecided. The contest is to replace incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who is facing a competitive primary challenge from his right.
The poll shows Talarico drawing strength from Hispanic and white Democratic voters, winning just under six in ten from each group. Crockett, by contrast, dominated among Black Democratic primary voters, capturing 80 percent of that bloc. Gender also played a role in the early divide, with men favoring Talarico by a wide 22-point margin, while women split evenly between the two candidates, according to Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball.
Talarico, a former middle school teacher, has built significant momentum since launching his campaign in September, raising more than $13 million. His profile rose sharply last year after he joined other Texas Democrats who fled the state in an effort to block a GOP-backed redistricting plan, a move that energized progressive activists and donors.
Crockett, a high-profile but polarizing figure within her party, reshaped the Democratic field with her late entry into the race in December. Her decision prompted former Rep. Colin Allred, who ran for the Senate in 2024, to drop his 2026 bid and instead pursue a House seat. That move set up a head-to-head Democratic primary between Crockett and Talarico, injecting new uncertainty into the race.
On the Republican side, the poll underscores a divided primary electorate. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a narrow one-point lead over Cornyn, 27 percent to 26 percent, among likely GOP primary voters. Rep. Wesley Hunt follows with 16 percent, while 29 percent remain undecided.
Kimball said the numbers suggest neither Paxton nor Cornyn is positioned to clear 50 percent, making a runoff between the two candidates likely in May if current trends hold. Hunt’s support, he noted, could play a decisive role in determining who advances.
In hypothetical general election matchups, Paxton runs evenly with both Talarico and Crockett, with each scenario showing Paxton at 46 percent. Cornyn, however, performs better in head-to-head contests, defeating Talarico 47 percent to 44 percent and Crockett 48 percent to 43 percent.
Despite Democratic optimism about making gains in Texas, the fundamentals still favor Republicans. The Cook Political Report currently rates the Senate race as likely Republican, a step below solidly GOP but still reflecting the state’s recent voting history.
The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey was conducted Jan. 10–12 among 1,165 Texas voters. Among the 413 likely Democratic primary voters, the margin of error was 4.8 percentage points, while the margin of error for the 550 likely Republican primary voters was 4.1 points.
